It took a few minutes of sleuthing to find a better or more updated image of the area. I am unsure of the date but this seems to be the presort facility built out. Not enough detail to see much though.https://browser.dataspace.copernicu...e3D="MAPZEN"&cloudCoverage=30&dateMode=MOSAIC
If I were your friend I would be prepared to short pre earnings should bad news come out or post earnings pops. I'll let you figure the options plays.
Google images for the nearby Pepperidge Farm facility can be measured for size and roughly compared to the Purceycle presort facility. I estimate the presort building is 336,000 square feet. How you like them apples?
Hell no, it is not even started. I think they ran out of money, waiting on financing based upon current plant proving itself. See a few posts back for photos/discussion. https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/purecycle-pct.381528/page-4#post-6040207 https://www.elitetrader.com/et/threads/purecycle-pct.381528/page-4#post-6040206 I recall they have already spent a ton of money on equipment, ought be onsite in Texas for a firm to build out the plant on the ground, ship to Georgia, erect quickly. But the site seems to have not been visited by anyone real constructions crews for a long time.
Hello, I have enjoyed reading this thread. For context, I am a long time PCT long - been involved with the company for around three years and have gotten to know the technology, management and market quite well. I am happy to have a conversation on any of these if folks are interested. A few points I would push back on that I have seen: 1) Running out of money - the company just raised an incremental $90m in prefs one month ago. Additionally, they have around $150m in revenue bonds remaining in treasury to sell if needed. As a last resort, they also have access to a $150m revolver from Sylebra. There was maybe a liquidity question before the 90m raise but they have cash on hand for over a year now even with zero sales. 2) The process cant scale - obviously I disagree. The main issue they experienced was removal of co-product 2 (CP2). The important note here is that the issue was not that the technology didn't separate co product from pure PP5, but that the process to remove the co-product waste would clog, causing the plant to need to shut down in order to drain. That process has been fixed now. The latest performance they ran 50% of scale for a full week and my understanding is that they have been increasing since. 3) Augusta - Augusta has been started. The reason you do not see anything in Augusta GA is because the long lead equipment that they ordered arrived to their facility in Beaumont TX. In Beaumont, this equipment is then partly assembled and will then be sent to Augusta. As expected, there will be some changes from the initial design in Ironton to what is built in Augusta, as a result there is no reason to begin construction on Augusta until Ironton is commissioned and all learnings can be implemented. 4) Earnings - The only thing that really matters this next call is going to be the production number. The product is already sold, the TAM is infinite, the only thing to prove is that the process can scale. The market will want to see incremental progress from the last update, 50% for one week. I expect we will see substantial progress on that. For whoever said they know a "pro" who just short the name, I can't think of a worse idea. The positioning here is so off-balance, over 100% of tradeable float is short, almost 100% of short positions are currently underwater, and the company is on the precipice of a major catalyst. If there is just 1-2% chance that you are wrong, the expected value on the short side is very very bad. Again, hope to have a productive converstion with folks interested in the name (long or short).
Those pictures are good, but all that stuff was addressed in the last CC. Have you listened to it? I did earlier. Here: Just make up a name/email and click thru. https://edge.media-server.com/mmc/p/6zim5bi3/ Interesting stuff though, especially the slides accompanying it. From a science standpoint. In so many ways, it's (and this is not a slam) kind of old school engineering. But doing what they're doing, that is the best that they can do. Whatever proprietary tech they hold, is good, but it's still pipes, pumps, filters, etc. I like it. The operation that is, not necessarily the stock. I dunno. The ceo is confident as all get out, but that's to be expected. I wanna see 1mm pounds/week for at least 70% of the next quarter. Do you really do the Peter Lynch thing with stocks like this? Go and visit? From Irontown to Denver? I'm impressed. What else do you have on your plate?
No, I've done a lot of reading but had not listened to that. The Peter Lynch stuff has really made sense to me. Yes, I have done all kinds of it before. I was young and ignorant with my early investing and did not research or hold thru pain. NFLX/AAPL would have changed my life much earlier if I had conviction and held. The Vitamin Shoppe was easy to walk through and engage. I sold at a small loss. Novavax- the closest I did was driving to two annual meetings. What a freaking story that was in our investing lives. Medicago was a small firm that engineered stuff to grow in tobacco plants, drove by there but was turned away at the building. I did see a greenhouse with plants in it. Tesla- oh hell yeah. The bearish/survival issues early on were very strong. I went to everything I could for them. Went to a road show that had a sportster to sit in along with a dummy alpha version model S that had Mercedes seats in it. Went to DC for a Beta version road tour, they had a skateboard out also, the underpinnings of the car. I stopped by the local sales/service centers anytime I was near the town, even took a video to share. I've stopped following so close. I did not get the hype for CAVA and avoided an investment. I enjoyed Zoey's kitchen but did not develop fortitude to hold. I feel unable to do much sleuthing with Palantir. Celsius tasted disgusting to me. I did go to Ironton and Augusta. Might go to Denver PA soon, but we have a farm based business that needs to open shortly (hint-all the other videos on my YouTube) My goal is to identify great growth stocks. They all give pain from time to time. By having a better feel for the company through research it is often easier to sleep at night. I want to weigh as many pros and cons as I can. I'd love to jump into more PCT but need them to prove themselves to me further. Presort in PA a big plus. Ohio seemingly in production a plus. Finances a negative, if production works I hope they do something to take this off the table, including a secondary offering of shares. Augusta a negative for hyper growth, but I think planning on three more facilities in six years might be more realistic. If they survive and grow they will offer all kinds of buying opportunities along the way. I'd seen the slides and read a bunch, now going to listen and see what I've missed. Thanks for link and idea.
They did not directly address anything new with Denver PA facility. They barely discussed in house pre sort to decrease CP2. No new info, certainly not as big as seeing that giant flippin building in existence!