It doesn't look bullish at all. Why is the company/stock doing so badly? What radical major changes is the management going to make to improve the business? It is a small company. Even though you invested a small sum, you might be a major shareholder.
What doesn't look bullish? The company has had a shit ton of headaches getting things going. Power outages caused failures that took a while to fix. Supplies have had more PET than expected. They lump things they are removing into two categories called co product one and coproduction 2. The physical form of CP2 is different or more varied than expected a d has required some re engineering to sort it out. I think some of that has been handled now. Overall, I think of this along the lines of Musk describing production hell when they brought the model 3 to market. Changes? Perhaps they have figured things out and are running things better. September saw 1M pound production in a week. My read is that is a run rate approaching 50% utilization of the factory, which per the CEO pays for the factory and nearly so the entire company.
Man, your comments make me think one of us really needs a different understanding of TA. 200 day average is going up and the bullish golden cross happened in May 24. 50 day level. RS 99...
If your trade plan says Long it when there is a Golden Cross, then you should Long it. Many traders don't use indicators/MAs and hence there is no such thing as a Golden Cross. Do note that the way you analysis charts is different from others.
It is a bit tough to forecast the future. The prices that they describe for PP make it seem like they can obtain and produce PP at the market price. CEO recently said PP is $1.39 per kg, call it 63 cents per kg. Bulk prices seem to be just under 50 cents per pound at present. https://www.statista.com/statistics/1171084/price-polypropylene-forecast-globally/ In order to get the price the CEO says they can get (.8-$1.2 per pound) there has to be some kind of special voodoo. That is an awful lot to pay for goodwill feel good go green when the alternative is cheaper... Anyway, the chart below shows my calcs for potential future prices for current production line at potential P/Es. Most bullish of these is $119. I do not know what is appropriate to discount per year but go with 20%. I assume each facility (South Korea, Belgium, Georgia) takes 2 yr to commission, that they will only bring on one plant per year, so might take 6 years to get this going. Discounted price yr1 95 2. 76 3. 61 4. 49 5. 39 6. $31. Net present value at 13 product line. the lines might be brought up together They might bring up more than 4 lines per location (8 mentioned in Georgia) They might be able to do this faster.
I look at the monthly and weekly first, because that seems to be where large investors go for trendz and level information. Daily looks good, I agree, but I've been whacked over and over again by a bigger trend I didn't see, trading against it, and it was obvious on the monthly.
Since 10/1, my broker shows a decrease in borrow rate (I think for shorting shares) from 9.625% to 8.5%.
It sounds like you want to be in this for the long-haul. IMO, this company has a pretty decent chance of making it, so here's my opinion on how you might consider playing it. Long term is in the eye of the beholder, but lets say at least an 8 quarter hold. In those 8 quarters the stock will certainly move on news, and you should plan on that. In either direction. It has weeklies so say one day you wake up and it is up $2 pre-market on some news story. If it's a story that sounds good, but has no near term ramifications to their balance sheet, when the bell rings that AM, give it a few minutes as the children chase it up, and then sell that week's atm calls. Or 2 strikes otm if there's "real" excitement in the air on WSB's. Odds are they won't get called away. Save the proceeds for the downside possibility below. On the downside, you wake up one morning and it is gapping down $2 on bad news, but what I said above applies again. If the news isn't about anything that will affect the balance sheet, sell a few puts 2 strikes otm. (This would be best used if you hold some powder back that you don't mind putting in the company if you can get it on sale. And use the call revenue.) In a nutshell though, WS values different companies by different metrics. Netflix... they love to look at subscriber growth. Restaurants and retail, same store sales. It's different for every sector and this company imo will be evaluated on cashflow for the foreseeable future. Hype will give it a premium, but you sound like a pretty knowledgeable investor so if you buy in, just follow the story. Check everyday. And when the quarterly reports come out, go straight to that income statement. That's all you'll need. If you see red flags or targets missed, get out. A stock's a stock. Someone in this thread pondered if companies would pay the premium to go green. Of course they will. Fortune 500 companies for sure. Proctor and Gamble for example, you know they will, it's their patents. Plus you can bet they still have their hands all over this thing. Their contract alone would probably support breakeven operating income. They only sell about 8 trillion plastic containers per day. And all those big European consumer product companies like PG lol, they'll probably be required by law to use this stuff. These companies get points for that. It makes their esg scores on the 10K's look good for the WS libs. A Harris win will certainly dish out more corporate welfare to help companies like this. And to some extent, they should. It's a good thing. Plastic is ridiculous and the amount we use... amazes me daily. So I think a win by her would certainly be a plus and the stock would jump. Trump, it'll drop initially, but I have a feeling that would be a good buying opportunity because I think either Administration will support a company like this. Regarding selling the calls, again, your shares won't get called away if "you know the story." When news comes out that moves it, you will know if that is the type of thing that might bump it 30%, so you would know not to sell that week's calls. Knowledge is key, and reading your analysis, you're obviously not "king of the idiots." One of my favorite avatars here btw.
On selling the weeklies, might be a good idea. I'm not sure I can or want to incorporate a new style to my trading. I think the next month will be prudent shorts quietly covering before earnings, likely explains the lower premiums loaning out shares. Small retail smoking hopium for short squeeze. A small hedge fund guy said large funds waiting until production proven, this sounds true. I don't think many are stepping in yet. I see little reason for big money to jump all over this yet. There are several short term catalysts, all hinge on production consistency. I think an argument could be made that the stock is flagging/triangling on the daily but will make no trades based off it. It might well break down without additional participants. I'm weary of unknown character commentary online pertaining to this stock. There might be a premium owning now while there are more unknowns. I am willing to buy more, but not without more data.
https://recruiting.ultipro.com/PUR1...e-44c9-9c9c-35260c59ec39/?q=&o=postedDateDesc Several new jobs listed over the past 5 days. Manufacturing, Denver PA sorting, NC lab