Risks 1. They flat out have said they do not have enough money for the next year. 2. They might have further start up delays and glitches. 3. They really need to sell in bulk to prove that other companies are interested in their ultra pure pellets (not fully pure???). 4. Personal risk: enthusiasm wanting this solution for the world. 5. Influence risk: There might be pump and dumpers online, hiding behind anonymity or actual ignorance. 6. Not sexy, not tech. 7. Overconfidence with market and equity at new highs.
Potentially long discussion, disjointed, forgive me. You should not follow me in this company. I am not a WS professional, have no licenses, have ZERO fiduciary duty to you. I am not sure how I first came across this company, perhaps an up on volume screen on Marketsurge. Purecycle proposes to recycle polypropylene plastic #5. This might cost $1.39 per kilogram. Ironton OH has 107M#/year capacity. $372M/yr sales possible with those givens. CEO has said they need to run at 30% of capacity to pay for the plant. 60% capacity pays for the company. TAM----PP is 170B# per year market, almost none of it recycled. Currently PP market is growing at 3.5% per year. <1% reused... PP = living hinge properties 150B#/year gets wasted There might be plans for Augusta GA plant. Ulsan South Korea partner? Antwerp Belgium location. (They are also hiring a temp for a lab in Durham NC) Corp HQ in Florida. Denver PA might have a PP sort facility come online. Future plants DEPEND on proving current plant in order to get financing. I think the CEO made it sound like they have already spent hundreds of millions on Georgia equipment, sitting in Texas, waiting to be assembled, final engineering, pending financing. PP is most valuable plastic. They are using PG patents. They are located at a Former Dow facility. Acquisition cost 15-20 cents/pound Processing cost 35 cents per pound. Sales price 80cents-$1.20 per pound 50% margin... 50 cent cost to run 8000#/hr = 66% utilization rate Massive short supply Tremendous demand. Fix end of use for plastics improves the image. They are "doing the hard work to learn now-be better later". Not going for easy quick profit. PG = good patent protection Moat? Modular construction with the Texas company. Things can be built on the ground, brought on site, assembled quickly. They have new recent job postings, including for sales, manufacturing, and the lab.
Things to keep track of or learn 1. How long after manufacture do they get paid? How long for moving a rail car to a plant, then get used before it impacts the bottom line? Might not be as soon as I or WS wants. Might not be soon enough to save the bottom line. 2. Run rate, max throughput, and percent plant utilization. 3. $$$-how do they stay in business from here? 4. They are really small cap, how much big money interest rolls in? 5. Other plant progress? If Ironton is a success, how long before this compounds?
PCT has a YouTube channels that offers parts of a factory tour video. It is smoother to sign up and do the whole thing in one part at this link:ironton-tour
I would love some discussion regarding the pros and cons of this company, plastics recycling. Feel free to chip in. I need a break but hope to draw out some future price scenarios if this company succeeds. Thanks.
While he's on vacation there, Nursebee should toss a line in the Ohio River around there and catch a 50lb 3-headed catfish.
Long term down trend, holding below SMA50 (monthly) and SMA200 (weekly), nice flag on daily after volume spike up, buy zone around $5