Nailing it would have been to cover 14, short and post the above. As it is you're down like $200K from the highs.
I'm down nothing since I sold post release and pre call. The point of the above: you had commented that. a friend was short. I suggested to wait until pre earnings pop or post earnings pop. Shorting then would have been profitable... FYI, I rolled into other current holdings.
Well I mean he's up. He was short pre. Something approaching 15 on the cover/reverse. It was large enough that he shopped it.
I am still following PCT but not as a bag holder... This week they had some kind of an investment thingy, put out some presentation online. It did not seem new at all. There has been some chatter on X about Toyota as a customer and that PCT will have 2027 capacity of 1B pounds. Well they just released a corrected report! Max Augusta 2027 lines won't be eight, it will be two. Max of 3 international lines. I'm willing to bet only public event dirty shovels have happened so far. As someone looking for fairly rapid exponential growth with available back of napkin analysis, this new info of greatly diminished capacity makes this company unattractive to me. It reads of them holding back on bad info, allowing the hopers and pumpers to exist. Also this week there was some kind of Trump infrastructure announcement, invest 1B, get accelerated permits. PCT should have jumped all over that shit! No firm grasp of what happens from here. Realistically I think that some hopers should give up due to slower growth plans. Again, I see no reason for rapid short covering. I won't short this, but I bet short term pops could be shorted in small size. Maybe even keep an eye on options if market conditions look to head south-a tough play right now.
The folks that make bull cases generally make strong arguments, but in total I find the likelihood of things working out to be low, just based upon math. One has to assign a probability (P)of them doing many things, expressed as a percent or in decimal form. P(1) having 5 additional lines in 2027. P(2) getting high margins for their product. P(3) product purity acceptable If all of these things are required for max bull(shit) projections, then the chance of those things happening is = P1 * P2 * P3 If each of the P's above have a value of 0.5 or 50%, then the probability of all of them happening is 0.125 or 12.5%. So one has to make some assumptions of the important probabilities and do the math, then decide if the risk is appropriate and then size positions accordingly. I bet that is why there are so few institutions invested!