Public not coming back??

Discussion in 'Trading' started by countrydog2, Feb 4, 2009.

  1. What are your thoughts on this? I'm thinking that so many of the retail investors have lost a very large % of their portfolios and as a result it will be a cold day in hell before they ever buy another stock. So if the market ever bottoms, it is likely not to appreciate to previous levels for a very long time.

    What do you think?
  2. They don't have money to invest...
  3. I think it will be good to see more of the US Blue Chip "weak hands" get exposed in the face of less 401K investment. Think about the majority of American 401K investing. People don't know where the hell to put their cash, so they fork it over to some massive retail brokerage unit that, by default (in most cases), sticks it into blue chip US stocks, i.e. Dow components. There has been an historical amount of capital flowing into these companies for decades, based on this poor premise. Look at how most of them are fairing now. Ford, GM, BAC, C, GE.....all completely pissed away shareholder money that has been accruing for decades by lax spending habits, and extraordinary risk taking. They just took your cash, stuck in in retained earnings, and said "look at how amazingly profitable we are!(thanks mostly to all of the indescriminant share-buying by milions of 401K investors)"

    It's been nothing short of a scam, in and of itself, and now many financially-illiterate investors are stuck with portfolio of dead, former blue chip US stocks. Think about how long some of these companies would've lasted, had they not had a steady flow of share-buying for the past 40-50 years by retirement investors, twice a month (the 1st and the 15th, taken directly out of investor paychecks and transferred to company balance sheets). Many of them would've bit the dust a long time ago due to inefficiencies in the business model. I'm not saying all US bluechips are bad, because they're not, but most of them have been bleeding out investor money for decades, not giving a damn, and now have their heads on the chopping block, screaming to the govt for mercy. I hope the average US investor takes note of this crisis, and never ever hands money away to these types of companies that operate on a tenure system, only to crumble when the going gets tough, and destroying the wealth of the hard working American people.
  4. Ha!!!! Never overestimate the human memory span.

    Greed and fear will always rule. Nothing ever changes and most people don't understand that. Do you think this is the first stock market panic?
  5. c4ytan


    I have no clue about the markets in the 80s but accdg. to Maggie Mahar's book "Bull", during the 80s, the public did not want to have anything to do with stocks which marked the beginning of the greatest bull market run in US stock market history. Basically, the implication was bull markets start when nobody wants to own stocks.
  6. Small/retail Stock investors will come back when a bull market resumes and fears abate over jobs and the economy.

    Your thought that the markets may not regain previous highs for sometime is a valid one. The nasdaq has yet to regain its previous highs after the tech bubble burst at around 5000. The dow/s&p may not take out previous highs for quite some time.

    No matter .....there is money to be made for astute traders.

  7. dsq



    It always has been a scam.
    How come 98% of these extremely wise,genius,educated experts cannot beat the market averages?Why do you need an mba on wall st?Why is it that 90% of ipos languish below and never rise again above their ipo price?Funny money?

    And this cycle repeats itself decade in and out.Its more about human behavior(greed of investor and broker) and psychology than any math or biz models.Ive seen it repeat itself 3 times now(1991,2000,2008).

  8. they wont be back until the bear market is over
  9. no kidding

    a housing bubble within 3 years of the nasdaq bubble

    i couldnt believe it
  10. They won't be back for a very long time. This isn't a recession - but the end of leverage as we know and use it.

    The entire economy (as well as markets) was on steroids (debt) for too long. Now the jig is up. We reached critical mass - personal, corp, and government debt is at unsustainable levels. Add up social security, medicare, govt and private and state debt - and your looking at north of 50 Trillion. Our great grandchildren will be paying that off. Nothing left.

    The days of doctors to lawyers, to engineers to salespeople investing on the side are just about over. They will earn their living doing what they do for a living.

    Don't expect the same amounts of liquidity sloshing around pumping up markets anymore. Money, once again, will be respected and used wisely. And do you know why? Getting it will be very difficult and people will be less likely to piss it away.
    #10     Feb 4, 2009