I'm guessing you're Unit001... Since I posted in your psychology thread about selling systems you continue trolling me. I understand that you expect your models/systems to be worth more than you expected with you asking MarkBrown how he presented his model to get $5M. You might think that I was under-selling my system. I completely understand how much work is involved with developing a trading model. But the reality WAS different. I obviously made money for the firm. That reputation got me better deals and network/access to a whole new level. Seriously... if you are really serious about selling your system... PM me. Obviously, you won't because you know that my contacts won't pay you $40+ Million for your models... Maybe you're a one hit wonder who's not confident enough to continue proving your skills. I really have no idea who and what you are. * For others... who haven't checked the thread... http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=166375
if you are asking me to publicly humiliate you .......SO BE IT Its not fair since you are probably 18 year old kid, but I have to teach you a lesson (who else here is gonna?) System design is not about creating a great system and selling it. System design is about YOU trading the great system YOU created. If you created a system which you CAN NOT trade YOURSELF, because it needs lot of money or it needs special IT resources, you can take that system put it in the toilet and take a dump on it. That's how much that is worth. Your hero Mark Brown seems to live off selling systems. Why don't you ask your Hero why doesn't he trade his system. You can become a SELLER, or in other words snake oil salesmen most of the time. or you can become a TRADER. There is a huge difference Trader scales up over his career and eventually starts a fund. Seller on the other hand keeps selling varieties of systems each tweaked just a bit and hopes to find gullible buyer. Maybe you don't have a problem selling smoke to people, that's fine, maybe you are one of those evil little twats. But if you become a real trader you will make MUCH MORE MONEY than a seller will. Now lets be honest, trading is scary, and you are scared shitless. It seems easier to give/sell a system to someone who will trade for you. But you will never get rich that way. Never ever. you have to take your own 10 k and grab your balls by your hand, say a prayer or two if you are into that. And give it a try yourself. or you can spend your years on ET thinking you are a hot shot, maybe that is all you need to be happy.
So what are you doing asking Mark Brown for advice about how to market your model you developed? Seriously.... I can't change my past. I guess I'm very stupid to sell my model for $10,000 / 20%. But I'm happy about it, that's something owned by myself and nobody else. The fact that you are posting about what happened and what you think is a good thing. I'm sure you have a better idea about starting up as an unknown system developer.
first post of my thread clearly states Sale of such a system is impossible for obvious reasons. Why do you think I wrote that, Why do you think I want at least 40 million for my system. Why do you think I ascribe such value to my system. BECAUSE IT MAKES MONEY FOR ME DAY IN DAY OUT NOT FOR SALE FOR CHEAP I won't waste any more time, I'll let you be the king of ET
Back to the topic... A while back I ran a series of tests about how Technical Analysis work together. I was trying to find a methodical way for combining different indicators. For example I ran the following test: I took 30 different types of TA and tested them under 10 markets. I also ran them under different data compressions (like timeframe, x-tick/volume bars, P&F, etc. etc.) to test how correlated the TAs would be. Obviously, different indicators have their own set of "rules" of interpretation so I kept the rules very simple like whether the TA is Bullish/Bearish than the last bar. In terms of the parameter value, I assigned them randomly per run. Initially, the result was a surprise because the figure was a lot higher than I expected. The correlation between the indicators were very high at a 92.693%. I figured that if the parameters were random and using multiple timeframes would provide a much lower figure but that doesn't matter. Anyway, after a series of tests like above, I can state the following is highly possible: 1. The type of indicator you use does not matter. They all show the same thing in the end, they all / only provide you with obvious conclusions. 2. TA figures are affected mainly by the 3 price patterns: 1. Higher High / Lower low. 2. Close relative to High or Low. 3. Current Bar relative to Swing(# of Bars) Individual tests taking indicators that are categorized in the above provides a higher correlation than the general 92% range. 3..... OK... there's a lot more and my fingers are getting a bit lazy... My point is we are all using the same source of data. There is a very high possibility of coming up with the same conclusion as the trader next to me. There is a 92 - 96% chance of the traders can trade the same way. At the time, I couldn't deny the relationship between how people say 95% of the traders fail. * I'm well aware about the fact that the results can change based on the type of tests I ran. Looking back, the 90+% is a bit "curve-fitted" towards an idea, but my point still stands. Anyways... still waiting for some thoughts and opinions... Also... more coming later.
It's interesting that all the indicators correlate. I thought that they are all largely random in predictive ability. Can they be random and correlate?
1. How does indicator correlation and predictive ability connect? Before I can try answering your quesion, I don't see how they are paired together. 2. I never wrote that ALL indicators correlate. 3. All I'm saying is if the current bar is bullish like, Higher High, Close near High Price and High = Swing High... 90+% of the indicators will come out with a "more bullish" than the last bar.
I'm in this thread because I want to see screen shots, even if it's text output. Carry on, and don't disappoint.
what does your system say when the market behaves like it did in the last week with es staying in a tight range for several days
Actually, I was going to write about predictive value... So what the hell is predictive value? I don't know what the universal definition is. But the definition I tend to use is, "Whether the current bar of the market has any affect over the next bar." In another words, I simply checked the serial correlation between each information of the bar. ALL data patterns and TA have close to 0 correlation between each other, generally speaking. But there were some interesting stuff. 1. Higher the time frame or more volume(ticks) involved in each data, higher the serial correlation becomes. 2. All markets showed a slight long side bias. Equities, Commodities or Interest rates... all of them. 3. The serial correlation of the serial correlation is random. In another words... there is no statistical significance showing any phase or cycles of when the bars/datas are serially in sync. In another words, more trades/opinion involved in each bar, higher the serial correlation(less random). So putting it all together: 1. There's a high possibility that your set of tools have little to do with how you success as a trader. Most of them give you same information, in different ways. 2. The "performance" of the indicator's is solely dependent on the data source. 3. People gain similar opinions of the market. Hence, higher volume/ticks == higher serial correlation. 4. The specific Buy/Sell signal of a TA does not matter in the long run. * All the things I write are based on very weak propositions.