Not necessarily. People cannot really test TA per se because TA is not a trading method. They can only test methods incorporating elements of TA. I think that the problem is two-fold. First, most, but not all, of TA is BS. Second, the stuff that gets tested is the lame generic crap that no one in their right mind would trade anyway. And guess what? If the testers came across a method that actually performed well, do you really believe that they would publish both the method and its results?
This discussion is getting a little too academic for me - closed set, add'tl outside variables, context-specific, etc. And I'm not sure what you have explained to me. You could replace fundamental with technical and your statement still makes perfect sense. Other's technical input can, but not necessarily add value to your gameplan. The addition of longer term technical analysis to a beginner's daily trading is an invaluable step. FA is used in a separate context from TA and vice versa. Simply by trading in the direction of the bigger trend you are alining yourself with the fundamental climate. So unless you're doing extremely indepth fundamental analysis to detect a change in the cycle, just glance at the weekly chart and trade with trend. Bingo, you are in aligned. I'm not trying to discount fundamental analysis or for that matter your opinion. I know my limitations and they include not being able to compete in a fundamental context with the best minds in the business. I do trade with regards to the fundamentals, but often by fading the fundamental players against solid technical levels. These often create the highest reward, lowest risk trade scenarios to make money on a daily basis. And that's our job, to make money everyday we can.
Yeah, there have never been any profitable chart readers. Ever. None of the successful guys who claim to have based their entire trading careers on chart reading were actually chart readers. They were just saying that they were chart readers. It's all part of a vast conspiracy designed to sell TA software and to make Jack Schwager a ton of money. Amazing how credulous some people are. Isn't it?
sunnyskies posted a tidbit on TA guru john murphy fund results: http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?threadid=56578 interesting to say the least. surfer
What do these funds have to to with Murphy? I do not see anywhere that he has anything to do with the funds, the management or marketing of the funds. Or am I missing something? As for TA? It is a broad subject and TA are only tools. The tools of TA and tape reading skills can help manage your trading approach and discipline. Depends how you use it all I guess. TA Analysts at firm like Prudential were part of the sales arm, just like all Analysts. Their job is to find a story to trade, wherever the story might be -- in TA or a fundemental outlook. Ralph was great at that job and had an often insightful market view where others saw nothing.