So, are you then saying it's acceptable for a trader to trade fundamentally using another's research when they have no understanding of fundamentals? I think a person trading without knowledge of either TA for FA are doomed from the start. At least the new trader is taking my trade ideas rather than buying Euros when the green light tells them to do so. I don't think I'm doing them a diservice at all. Continuing with this point, I believe that 1 trader our of 100k has the ability to trade this FX markets purely based on fundamentals. Cable could move 150 points based on pure market noise against the fundamental climate in an instant and knock all traders on board out of the market. Fundamentals are so priced into this market it's silly. The smartest guys in the whole world with billions in buying power had the data weeks before we did. WE have no shot playing at their table. Thank god for charts. (Haha,,,I'll bet I get roasted for this one)
The church of whatever works for you. LOL....Excellent....never heard that one...kinda strange because i am also a member.
Agreed. But I was actually referring to the specifics of taking and managing a position, the actual trading aspect - entry, pt, stop-loss, trailing stops, risk/reward, money management, and the psychology of it as well. H
Well if nothing else Pru lost a great comedian. I heard Ralph speak in Dallas last month and he was very funny to listen to. Has great audience attention skills. Bsulli
That damn green light. I saw it last month in the euro. OUCH. A trader with NO knowledge of TA or fundamnetals isnt doomed. No sir. Their account will implode. Doomed isnt a strong enough word.
interesting post. i dont believe there is prejudice against TA. simply, these firms are FINALLY realizing that TA is untestable, unquantifiable, and only works in the past when its too late. surfer
You miss the point. I only trade ES intraday and do not use fundamentals at all. However, I would not necessarily discount the additional use of fundamentals for FX trades of a longer duration. What I am saying is that TA is a closed set and is self-contained. If you use it and cannot see it for yourself then you are screwed. However, if your trading has any fundamental basis at all, then there are always additional outside variables that can play a role in your decision making, and other people's input can potentially (albeit not necessarily) have some value in this regard. I'm rather surprised that I should have to explain this to a newsletter writer.
Folks who try to "test" and "quantify" TA show their own ignorance of what most successful traders actually do, which is discretionary TA. In baseball, when 2 players are on first and second, w/one out in the bottom of the 7th, and you're trailing by 2 runs and the 5th position batter in the rotation is up w/2 balls and 1 strike, you have a specific set of circumstances that dicate a certain strategy. But that's just the mechanical side of the equation, there are myriad other realtime factors and variations that will influence your decisions, these cannot be quantified. To do so is to deny the brilliance and humanity of baseball. Otherwise it could be played by robots. Same for trading. H
ok, H. I am certainly not trying to disparage the art of TA and will grant that some people are highly skilled in this arena. however, i prefer to avoid highly subjective tactics and believe they have NO place with large money management firms. when tested TA does not work--pure and simple--this does not mean that there are not traders who can use it succesfully. best, surfer