I asked chatGPT and it gave this formula to calculate the sample size: N= [Z^2*p*(1-p)]/E^2 Where: N=sample size Z=Z-score p=probability of win E=Margin of error Assuming R:R=1:1 for simplicity For win/lose of 54/46 Z=1.96 for a 95% confidence level p=0.54 1-p=.46 E=1% if I want a margin of error of 0.01 N=9,542, I need about 10,000 trades to be absolutely sure it is real. That is too much, so I reduce the margin of error to 5%, then N=382. PRM could be the edge because I don't think I am doing anything special, basically just trend following, using generic stuff that everyone on ET uses? I now have over 500 trades, I do notice a gradual degradation of win rate but still hovers around 54%. R:R, as much as I could tell is close to 1:1. I just have to keep running it for a few more months in small size and see if things will hold.
I am actually in agreement with you. How do I go about building a profitable style? Where do I start? Thanks.
Ok. Focus on research into vol and study structures. Follow @destriero and his journals. Ask @taowave and others where you run into questions. Take it seriously. You’ll find your style.
Thank you for the coaching. Those names you mentioned are my heroes and I followed them closely. I have positive expectancy in my option trades, in aggregates (CAGR > CAGR of QQQ since 2013), and I am happy with my style there. Where I really need help is to develop a profitable day trading system. Can you help? Thank you in advance.
Start with getting caught up on the literature. Why do you think there's an opportunity intraday and what does current research say about it?
Not a question of opportunity but of redemption. I failed day trading (intraday) multiple times in the past. I want to give it one more try.
Don’t try to “day trade”. Be hyper focused on uncovering opportunities regardless of the timeframe. For example, if you understand options, it might be a good idea to explore 0dte and how they interact with the broader market. More specifically, are there “anomalies” you can take advantage of?