Prudent Risk Management Is The Only True Edge In TRADING

Discussion in 'Risk Management' started by Buy1Sell2, Jul 6, 2015.

Is Prudent Risk Management the only true edge in trading?

  1. Yes

    55 vote(s)
    30.7%
  2. No

    124 vote(s)
    69.3%
  1. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    The edge in casino games is simply to never go in to the casino and play. Instead, that money should be invested or used to pay off debt etc. The person that does that, has the edge.
     
    #681     Mar 5, 2018
  2. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis

    No dog in this hunt (and I apologize if this has been covered) but,

    Casino games (besides poker) have no memory: IID probabilities/Central Tendency constructs can be applied. The market violates IID conditions for each and every split of time you might wish to contemplate. That "we all" seem to do it does not lend any validity to the violations. Hell, just the fact that we all telescope back and forth between shorter and longer and back to shorter time frames, demonstrates our own individual willingness to declare "Memory!" in market functions that casino games lack. And, "To our hazard."

    Market events at time "t" are not independent of time "t-1", nor is their variance distributed even close to "identically." (The fact that you can quote today's volatility belies the fact that you *must* keep track of its changes.)

    Okay. Carry on.
     
    #682     Mar 5, 2018
    Van_der_Voort_4 and Buy1Sell2 like this.
  3. Pekelo

    Pekelo


    I know I heard it 200 times. You pulled that number out of your shiny hairy ass. :)

    What if I say prudent is 1%? Are you going to pull out The Trader's Encyclopedia and prove me wrong?

    Also, another thought came to my mind. So let's say I start out with 100K risking 2K. I lose it. Now I have 98K and I am going to risk only 1960 dollars. I lose it. With 96K I am risking only 1915 or so. etc.etc.

    What happens is that my risk amount keeps shrinking so after a certain amount of time and loses, the risk % of my capital will be too tight for the market and I will keep losing faster and faster. With this current volatility, I might not even be able to enter a trade because it hits my 2% stop in no time. No refills, remember?

    So the problem of this PRM shit, that with constantly shrinking capital you have to shrink your stop loss and that can be very detrimantal to your trading strategy.

    In short, your slogan is full of holes. Shitholes...
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2018
    #683     Mar 5, 2018
  4. tommcginnis

    tommcginnis


    I'd fire whoever is getting you into those horrible trades long before I blamed prudent risk management. :wtf:
     
    #684     Mar 5, 2018
  5. Pekelo

    Pekelo

    That is not the point. I just proved that PRM itself will not prevent the meltdown of your capital if your strategy/psychology isn't sound.
     
    #685     Mar 5, 2018
  6. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Nope. 1 percent is a great number. Just don't lose more than 2 percent of TLNW.
     
    #686     Mar 5, 2018
  7. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Correct. PRM will prevent you from blowing out your account totally because you will have to stop trading before the blowout----But detractors always mention an absurd example of somebody losing on every single trade.--In reality, what happens is everyone has a positive winning percentage but most traders take profits early and take losses late. So, they are unable to overcome their inevitable losses.
     
    #687     Mar 5, 2018
  8. EVERYONE has a positive winning percentage???? That sounds absurd.:rolleyes:
     
    #688     Mar 5, 2018
  9. Buy1Sell2

    Buy1Sell2

    Everyone has winners.
     
    #689     Mar 5, 2018
  10. Everyone has losers too. Do you think one profitable trade out of five or ten trades is considered a positive winning percentage because they had one winning trade? I don't like your choice of words for your explanation, but I know what you mean... I think.

    You must really believe that every profitable trader out there in trader universe made their profits only doing the B1S2 way...that is absurd for sure. How can you believe such a thing? You can't be that ignorant.
     
    Last edited: Mar 5, 2018
    #690     Mar 5, 2018