Waste of breath to try and convince people that technical analysis works. The problem is their lack of understanding of what the stockcharts represent. In a daily chart, each candlestick reflects the market participants positions on that stock. Add more candlesticks and you see patterns, you see trends, etc. Soy in his thread said nobody saw the huge drop one day. True. However, he misses the bigger point that if you are able to read the stockcharts, you would have seen the trend has been down for while, and could have positioned yourself to profit from the stock market moves. No problem. Dumb money will do what dumb money has done which is lose all their monies over and over again. And then, they wonder, what the hell just happened? You just got fleeced again fools because you cannot read a stockchart if your life depended on it.
If Fundamentals analysis trading works for some people thats fine, I've tried it but i couldn't make it work for me. News releases are constant as are speakers and major events around the world which can change direction of your position on a sixpence.
I am not saying Fundamental analysis does not have its place (we all trade with our personal edge / strategy) some trade long term,which is where i say Fundamentals pay a more important roll.(the bigger picture) joined with TA for levels. -Time and planning- But as a short term position trader, whilst i always have a news feed in the background just to keep up to date during the trading day.together with a economic calendar to keep me away from serious market moving moves. It would be imposable for me to trade fundamentals as a day trader, But that is just me, i am sure there are many short term fundamental traders.
Hedge Fund ETF Up 33% This Year Jumps Past $1 Billion in Assets Fund mimicking trend-following quants is fastest growing ETF Three-year-old DBMF has seen inflows for 19 months straight https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...p-33-this-year-jumps-past-1-billion-in-assets
Gray line is buy and hold BTC from Feb 2017 to present. Blue line is buy and sell, always in, 24/7 non-compounding percentages accumulation. Technical analysis, trend following, price action. This is not actual live trades, just a test. To me, it's proof.
Think how crazy it is, to think only current PA matters and that past action and TA cannot give a probability to how it will trade in the future. You would have to discard that previous relative lows, relative highs or new lows or highs have no meaning. Which is pretty dumb, the market has to expand for anyone to make money and people obviously use stops and get a triggered emotion when we break highs or lows (being relative or new). So, to think larger players aren't taking advantage of that is almost beyond ignorant. Do you really think larger players can just buy in the middle or near the highs of a move? of course not they will price them selves out. I think everyone knows by now larger players generally speaking look to stop others out to create liquidity so they can accumulate lower and get a net weighted average(or vice versa). Which means they are often accumulating and buying more near the lows, relative lows or even new lows when stops get ran. Sure, there some very solid trades and strategies you can take based on momentum and current PA. Not debating that. Just saying current PA can be looking bullish, yet a larger player could be actually distributing directly into that move, from a position they built lower. Or they could be buying small amounts to make it continue to look bullish, while selling twice that amount over time as to keep enticing other buyers, so they can further unload more. While not perfect Thursday was somewhat a decent example of this. A lot of people we're looking up and for a trend day. Yet we completely reversed, broke the lows and actually went down more than we went up. Trend is not determined necessarily by the current bullish PA or rules you made from higher highs, that's just a way to see what potentially already took place you're still late to the game. Trend is determined prior to the trend showing, by larger players either sucking up all the selling supply lower or sucking up all the buy supply higher. Once the supply is sucked up, than the market has essentially trapped others (whether by design or not is irrelevant) at that point the market explodes in the opposite direction. Than of course other people jump in, more people get trapped and that's when you get your expansion move. It's just more difficult to determine trend early, so most of us have to wait to see the move before we take the move. The reality is larger players already determined the trend before you saw it. They either have an intention of selling to buy or buying to sell. So, it is possible to get a probability on trend before it happens. Not saying it's easy, but it's possible.