Prove to me that Technical Analysis Works.

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by TazTheLaz, May 28, 2022.

  1. ZBZB

    ZBZB

    Paul Tudor Jones used Elliott wave theory.
    Stanley Druckenmiller looks at charts
    http://mastersinvest.com/chartsquotes
     
    #11     May 28, 2022
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  2. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    I agree with most of this, though I've never seen evidence that a 14-day RSI has any edge. The only edges I've seen are long-term momentum beating buy-and-hold on a risk-adjusted basis. There used to be trading systems that bought short-term weakness during long-term uptrends that had an edge as well. For example, buy a 7-day low when the S&P 500 is above its 200-day MA then sell the next 7-day high--or something like that. From what I can tell, they lost their edge when books started promoting them and automat trading systems started using them.

    Also, I haven't seen any edge in volume, though I haven't really studied or systematically tested volume profile or modern adaptations of Wycoff. But simple volume or volume+price doesn't seem to provide any real, repeatable alpha.
     
    #12     May 28, 2022
  3. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    A line on a chart I trust is price.

    And I trust it more than I trust any human.

    Including the great investor of the insurance cash machine monster he built Warren Buffett.
     
    #13     May 28, 2022
  4. TazTheLaz

    TazTheLaz

    The stock price can deceive you. Ever read Irrational Exuberance?
     
    #14     May 28, 2022
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  5. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    The only deception is .... you actually believe that.

    Note that I day trade. Nothing to do with long term viewpoint. That I could care less.
     
    #15     May 28, 2022
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  6. hilmy83

    hilmy83

    i think quants are the only "techies" that make money long term.

    The Man Who Solved the Market: How Jim Simons Launched the Quant Revolution,
    Citadel, jump trading, etc

    Sure they don't use swiggly lines like most retail traders, but they use fancy math on price data. Isn't that what technical analysis is? coming up with a mathematical formula to read the markets.
     
    #16     May 28, 2022
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  7. TazTheLaz

    TazTheLaz

    No, because Citadel is a market maker, and they have much better data than anyone else has access to. Quant models aren't the reason they make money, volume data and buying data is, though.
     
    Last edited: May 28, 2022
    #17     May 28, 2022
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  8. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    Yes, plus plenty of math geeks have tried using "really fancy maths" (neural nets, chaos theory, Fourier Transforms, etc.) over the years without any consistent edge. Basically Simons edge is HFT, probably optimized by a bunch of math geeks.
     
    #18     May 28, 2022
    smallfil likes this.
  9. TA doesn't work.. from you typical indicators...it's trash.
     
    #19     May 28, 2022
  10. virtusa

    virtusa

    If you believe that, TA can never work for you. So it makes no sense to teach you something that you don't believe in.
     
    #20     May 28, 2022
    wrbtrader likes this.