Pros and Cons of the Jack Hershey Futures Method:

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by aeliodon, Jan 6, 2007.

  1. Okay so I was thinking of giving it a go on Monday just to see how it goes. I already trade TLs so adding the other side shouldn't be much of a stretch for me.
    I went to his site and downloaded a couple of videos, but when I play them all i get is sound playing on windows media player. Where's the visual?
    Anyway, his method undoubtedly works for some folks particularly Jack, Spyder, Mak, and a few others.
    But for some guys it doesn't work or work well enough as said. Guys like nwbprop, a very smart ivy league type that dedicated 3 years and didn't make it full time. Guys like hypotemus who spent 6 years stalking and obsessing of over Jack and has an encyclopedia of knowledge about his method yet still is unconvinced. That's the ultimate test when hypotemus finally converts so will I. j/k
    So since the method is not really objective - just look at the charts people post, everyone's chart looks different - although everyone is at different experience levels that may explain it. And its not backtestable either, which is not necessarily a bad thing as the autobots can't ruin it. Again I'm not saying subjective and not backtestable is bad, I actually think its good or else just let the robot trade it - but then there are many dangers to that approach as well.
    I'm not here to flame, just want to hear some opinions without distracting from the good work Spyder is doing. I hold Jack in high regard, I think he is a sort of genius but then genius is not infalliable especially when it comes to market (theres a book on this).
    I think ultimately its just like any other method, in the hands of a skilled trader the trader will make it work for him with enough experience.

    Anyway here's my list of pros and cons even though I have limited knowledge and experience with the method:

    - Requires constant monitering - so you always in tune and reacting to the market. You don't get lazy.
    - Does away with the one-sided approach where you form an opinion/bias and cling to it by simultaneously ignoring market action.
    - You know market will go left and right constantly so if you miss on opportunity so what plenty more will present themselves.

    - Requires constant monitoring - sometimes less is more if you just look at the big picture.
    - Very subjective and hard to test.
    - Sometimes with all those channels you can lose track of the bigger picture.
    - If your trying to nail the left and right of every channel that can be a source of continual frustration as no trader can do that everytime and trying that is the quickest way to blowout.
    - There's no discussion risk or money management. Its like success is 100% assumed or else the trader is just an idiot. Really, how do you know whether you're getting it or not? When to stop and when to continue?
  2. btw i hope the moderator will just this thread down if it gets out of hand as the usual J.H threads do.
  3. forget to mention another positive the sports memory part. a method that gets you in the flow state is the only one worth trading.
  4. Pros: might learn something
    Cons: might do a lot of reading for nothing.

    Results from pros: might make a lot of money

    Results from cons: might waste a little time
  5. Another (more philosophic) issue perhaps more suitable as a topic for another thread but can there really be reward without risk? That just sounds too much like "free energy" and "perpetual motion" - impossible so say the 2nd law of thermodynamics. You have to be wary of any talk of anything in the trading and financial world that doesn't mention risk.
  6. doli


    It may be a profitable method. I think it depends on being able to accurately identify channels in realtime. It may happen that once a channel is identified, price begins to move in a new channel. The formation of each new bar may require the consideration of a new prospective channel. Which is the dominant channel? When can a channel be removed from consideration?

    By the way, a bot might be just the thing to identify prospective channels. Barring that, I think that people trying the method should use an old CRT monitor -- one with glass -- so that they can draw/erase channels on the display with a grease pencil ;-)
  7. pro: that method allegedly makes 20 millions per year...

    con: so far nobody showed up here doing so...
  8. has jack hershey ever been profiled in the mainstream media?

    woody's CCI has been out there in trader conferences
    and occasional magazine articles

    or classes ( and of those who follow woody's methods
    how many "get it" ) ?
  9. C99


    I'm participating in spyder's futures thread and I believe that Jack's ideas and insights have merit. Jack aside, price and volume ARE intimately related. volume drives price in any market. Exchanges exist to transact business and price will seek the level at which the most business can be transacted. So having come to the conclusion on my own that the P,V relationship is valid I would like to learn as much as I can about it. Spyder is offering this opportunity. pros and cons...


    You are learning to read the market. You are learning to listen to what the market is telling you. This is not a 'simple profitable method' but rather a way to interpret what is going on and profit from that knowledge. Once learned, this knowledge is transferable to the market of your choice.

    Spyder. Jack has a huge volume of material available to those who search it out, yet few have been able to make sense of it. I personally understand and enjoy Jack's ramblings, but many others don't. Spyder has the ability to put Jack's knowledge and experience within reach of the average ET attention span.

    Spyder again. Two years of spyder's equity journals with valuable contributions from many other posters that have documented validity of jack's ideas wrt equities.


    It's not a 'simple profitable method' ( I've used that twice now and mean no disrespect to that journal or it's participants. I haven't even followed the journal. I'm using it as a catch-all for the holy-grail system so many search for that they can turn on, go play golf, and come home rich.) You have to actually work. I think this is a pro as it is probably too much work for the average trader.

    You have to participate and open yourself up to criticism. Again, I think this is a pro as most egos are too fragile to put aside what they think they know and open themselves up to something different. I've read everything of Jack's and spyder's that I can fine. Much of it multiple times. Reading and doing are different and thus I have made a commitment to myself to follow through on spyder's journal.

    It's going to take time. Six months before we even put all the pieces together. six months? come on. That's nothing. It would take years to put this together on your own, if you could at all. I've been mentored in other areas and I fully appreciate the accelerated and condensed knowledge that can be passed down from people who have traveled the route before you.

    It may be a giant waste of time and his methods just don't work. maybe. Maybe I can't make them work? maybe. But based on my past trading experience there are fundamental trading truths being discussed in that journal. So worst case for me is I blow some time and learn more about the P,V relationship which I believe to be valid. Best case is much better than that.

    So I've done a R/R analysis for myself wrt to fully participating knowing that it is a big time commitment and for me it's a no-brainier. It can't be back tested and nobody is owed any proof or tradelogs. It's a judgment call based on experience weather you think the possible end result is worth the effort. I do.
  10. C99


    On a side note, lately I feel like I'm in bizzarro ET where jack is held in high regard and threads about him and his ideas can proceed in a civilized manner. Hypo must be on vacation or something? I guess there's still gerry...
    #10     Jan 6, 2007