Welcome back. If you are finding more green between 10:30 - 12, maybe that is where you want to place the size and scale back other time frames. Just a suggestion. Hope the break helped clear your mind. That is what I am trying to do AGAIN the next 2 weeks.
Yeah, I have been varying size. I really don't trade the afternoon much as my stats show I rarely make $ in the afternoon. The thing is these things change depending upon the way the market is trading. I usually make $$ in the morning but not at the moment. The break was good. I planned the holiday quite a while ago so it wasn't in response to my trading or the market. But it was good to have a break nonetheless. Biggest break I have taken for quite a while besides Christmas time.
Another boring day today. Not much happening. Lost a little on SIRI (which died after the initial moves in the opening 20mins) and on XLF which refuses to break out above the $17.15 level. Caught a pop on AMD with the potential takeover by DELL. So after that I was down about $100. Decided to play DELL earnings as its a stock I know and everyone on CNBC kept saying negative things about it and the potential earnings all day long. Thus I decided that if they surprise to the upside then it could be a nice move. Took 1,000 shares at $13.89 and held it into the halt. They surprised to the upside and the stock opened around $14.60. Got out an average price on $14.86 for almost $1k profit. Looking at after hours it looks like a great out. It's sad that an essentially arbitrary decision to take a trade into earnings makes an easy $1k while I spend the whole day trying to make something happen with no success. Oh well, I ain't complaining when I get the right side of luck... had my share of bad luck that's for sure. Green again for the month, albeit tiny. Plan on keeping it green as there is no point in losing $$ in this market btw I didn't see any really good opportunities to take size today so kept things small again. Date: 15/02/2011 Net P&L: $850 Month Balance: +$750
Opportunities missed today. SIRI had a big gap close which I only got about 35% of the move and without good size. AMD traded well today but I didn't pay it close enough attention and didn't trade it. Missed the DELL breaking $15 level which gave a 20c move in about 5 mins. My profit today was made up from the SIRI move. Only took 15k for about 4c. +$500. Should have bought it back but didn't. Didn't take any trades after that even though it traded well until the inevitable 1-2c range kicked in. Lost $150 on OMX when my short popped in my face. It did eventually break down but I wasn't in it. I took it back at the original level but it just never wanted to break down. Very choppy around the crucial levels. Lots of algos / traders trying to squeeze shorts every time it broke decent levels. Made $150 back on small size on the 2nd leg of the ALU move. Tried adding more size but kept missing levels as they were just swiped. 3k for 5c = $150. Once I got back to the pre-OMX levels it was just after the Fed-Mins. Nothing happened on the news and I decided it was time to get out of there. Hopefully this is the start of putting something together this month. Missed a lot of the month due to holidays but maybe it is yet salvageable. Glad I'm not negative like a number of the other traders on the floor. Date: 16/02/2011 Net P&L: +$470 Month Balance: +$1,220
I think I'm gonna change the format of my posts a little. My thought is that maybe my lessons, what I did well and what I did badly may be a better thing for me to focus on instead of the mechanics of the trade. So here goes... BRCD was on my radar as earnings after close today. So looking at it in the morning was something I did right. Caught a nice little pop on it with 2k shares. Made about $200. What I like is I kept share size small and got a nice little 10c move. After it did a 14c candle down I decided that it was not a good stock to be trading so I was able to avoid the chop on it that prevailed for the rest of the day. ALU was active again so I was watching that. What I like about what I did was not jump in early. A couple other traders were long 4.94-4.96 and had to get out when it had a good pull back down to $4.93. I then started to build a long position without taking much risk at all. I need to do this a bit more often. I built my position starting @ .93 and adding up to about .95-.96. Ended up with 7k with a $4.937 average price. I'm happy that I held for my target of $5. I was almost certain that we were going to at least test it. I ended up covering it all @ $5.01. What I did well was building into the trade. What I did badly was not working out of it. I find it sometimes really hard to hold after I start selling. I'm fine waiting for my target but once I start selling there I often find it hard to hold part of my position for a bigger move. I made about $400-500 on the trade however I could have doubled it if I just waited 5-10mins longer. So that is something I need to improve. I remember a bunch of quotes about the most profitable trade being to sit on your hands. Jess Livermoore brings up a good point with this quote. "After spending many years in Wall Street and after making and losing millions of dollars I want to tell you this: It never was my thinking that made the big money for me. It always was my sitting. Got that? My sitting tight! It is no trick at all to be right on the market. You always find lots of early bulls in bull markets and early bears in bear markets. I've known many men who were right at exactly the right time, and began buying or selling stocks when prices were at the very level which should show the greatest profit. And their experience invariably matched mine that is, they made no real money out of it. Men who can both be right and sit tight are uncommon. I found it one of the hardest things to learn. But it is only after a stock operator has firmly grasped this that he can make big money" I really could have been pushing the trade by doubling my size near where I was exiting. My average would have still be good and all I would need is another 3-4c to really clean up. At the very least I should have been keeping 3-4k of my trade. I actually ended up shorting a small amount and gave back 50-100 on the trade. So this is my lesson for the day. At least sit on my hands a bit longer. Although I get the feeling I should be making a lot more by increasing my size on these trades I am still happy with the direction of the month. Tomorrow is probably going to be a Zzzzz as Monday is a holiday and most with take off early after lunch. Might trade the morning but haven't decided yet. Getting away again this weekend for some boarding... all about improving my mental alertness hahahaha Date: 17/02/2011 Net P&L: +$500 Month Balance: +$1,720 (btw I had a couple of little losses and small gains on a few other stocks but nothing worth mentioning. Going forward I'm just going to mention my more significant trades)
While I remember, I want to make a note that I have really made an effort not to lose much in the first hour of trading. My real $$ is generally made between 10:30am-noon. I have also really cut down on my trading in the last hour. I ran a bunch of analysis on my trades and found that the afternoon is really not profitable for me. I want to keep this tactical strategy going until the market changes again or things are not working out
Short day today, I don't expect much to happen in the afternoon. Notable trades were MGM short... started shorting around $14.90 and added on the way down... it tried to shake me out. Had 2k short average price around $14.87. What I like about this trade is I really let it work out for me. I actually took it off my screen so I wouldn't try and over manage it. I knew it was weak and all I had to do is wait (like I was talking about yesterday). Got out a little around .77 and held 1.7k of it for the bottom and covered $14.72 LVLT. Disappointed I missed the break out. Ended up shorting and rode a nice move from $1.59 (3k) $1.56 (2k) $1.55 (3k)... covered it all at $1.53. I knew it at the time that this was a bit too early but I wanted to lock in the $300. Right or wrong I was happy with the trade. AKAM. Alerted to its weakness over my news service. took a look at the chart and took a short @ $42 (1k shares). Added a bit @ $41.90 (300 shares). I held on for a move into the $41.70s. I covered most around $41.75 on the way up. held 500 shares and basically took a flat @ $41.90 on them. I was happy that I held it for the move. Even though I took a flat on the last part of the position I felt that holding a portion for a larger move was the right thing to do. CSTR. Caught in a short squeeze. Wow the spread on that is crazy. had 300 shares short $46.30 had to get out $46.70. Nothing much to say about the trade. Would do that sell and cover again in a heart beat. BRCD. Tried to build a long position in it after they had flushed the longs out by breaking the $6.60 level. My long was $4k @ $6.60 and had to bang out around $6.54. This trade really doesn't suit me as it jumps around a lot. Going to try and avoid it in the future. Overall I'm happy with the day and the month continues on the up albeit it very slowly. See you all on Tuesday. MGM +311 LVLT +295 AKAM +197 NGB (44) SPWRA (44) CSTR (117) BRCD (291) Date: 18/02/2011 Net P&L: +$300 Month Balance: +$2,040
LOL at the Livermore quote from a daytrader! Good work. How and what do you pay for the trading seat at your firm?