Proprietary Trading Firms - A Different Business Model

Discussion in 'Prop Firms' started by expiated, Nov 10, 2022.

  1. alistera

    alistera

    I can help with this, there are two types of approach, profit generating and fee generating.

    Profit Generating
    An entity I know via via did it this way, the reference point is Richard Dennis Turtles, 23 were trained and understand 2 failed, making it around a 9% failure rate and 91% success rate, the prop entity trained a few traders on their architecture however none of them were able to make it a success basically being neutral, even though the architecture was a net neutral platform with positive return skew, meaning it was really hard to make losses, if they had succeeded it would have been incredibly profitable for everyone. The reason, with Dennis all were trained onsite, whereas remote it will invert the basis which shows the power of their architecture basically running remote at 50% success/failure, however the reason for the prop was to actually train traders in the methodology to later run funds, the fact it did not produce results was actually irrelevant as it was not the primary focus.

    Fee Generating
    This is the likes of prop firm such as Top Step Trader, someone posted all the number analysis some years back for them either here or on Quora, interestingly their failure rate is the exact inversion of the Dennis Turtles in the 90% range, if you find those numbers you will see the money in the $100,000s to $millions is made in the fees due to the failure rate, the profit amounts are smaller, this is how prop firms work, it does not mean they are a bad thing as everyone believes they are the exception, however even in that sub 10% success rate how many actually make enough profits to be a career and leave their day job, 1% and less.

    ****

    The IP is a serious problem, what you will have is people from certain countries 'appropriating' that IP, repackaging it, and selling it as their own trading method, I know a story of someone who wrote 1,000s of articles and decided to remove a proportion of them as their were 'work in progress', someone actually asked them for copies because they forgot to download them, and they often found their content copied and reworded without citation to the source, this is how people create their own little cottage industries of information that is not transferable to the next person, because the devil is in the detail.

    You will see the same, however it was told to me there is one simple thing, without you supporting that knowledge base anyone with the IP and anyone using it will fail rapidly, you want to make it difficult for them but in the end this is the cost of business. The consultants who released the prop were going to set up onsite training for future hedge fund managers, they had the location scouted with self enclosed single room kind of chalets, out of the way from cities being peaceful and calm, then things like lockdowns came along with endless amounts of costs, they simply said skip it, and created fintech to do the same thing instead, which it does.
     
    #31     Nov 11, 2022
    expiated likes this.
  2. expiated

    expiated

    I came up with my system on my own, but later discovered that their were superficial similarities between what I came up with a system I later encountered called cycle trading conceptualized by a guy named J.M. Hurst way back in the 1970s.

    For example, according to Peter Eliades, the main course of Hurst’s book is the "applications of numerical analysis as applied to the markets," and as it turns out, I actually call my system "Numerical Price Prediction."

    Additionally, the subtitle of Millard's book is "Identifying Share Price Trends and Turning Points Through Cycle, Channel and Probability Analysis," and I have described my system as "conceptualizing price action as a spectrum of values forming cyclical waves of given amplitude, that cut swaths of area bounded by dynamic adaptive price range channels with directional tendency, to inform a decision-making process based entirely on mathematical odds and statistical probability, which has an uncanny ability to unveil the key levels where market makers reverse direction to enter/come out of positions with liquidity."

    According to Millard, Hurst's work was based on five main concepts:
    1. Maximum profits are obtained from shorter trades
    2. Some 23% of price motion is based on cyclic movements in nature
    3. These cycles are additive
    4. The cycles can be seen clearly if envelopes are constructed around the price movement
    5. The ideal buying point is when several such cyclic components are reaching their low points
    That the cycles are additive might, I'm thinking, be complementary to the notion of fractal market hypothesis, which is reflected in my system.

    Also, that maximum profits are obtained from shorter trades fits with my stating that one of the intrinsic predictability limitations of Numerical Price Prediction is that of error growth with time.

    The fourth concept states that "the cycles can be seen clearly if envelopes are constructed around the price movement," and when considering the fractal market hypothesis the other day, I wrote: "So then, fractal market hypothesis believes technical analysis is possible because one can see the fractals—the replicating geometric patterns—in which prices move through time. Analysis is therefore focused on the price movements of assets based on the contention and central premise that history repeats itself."

    The fifth concept states that "the ideal buying point is when several such cyclic components are reaching their low points," which fits with my guidelines to "enter trades as price bounces off key statistical support/resistance levels—where the amplitude of the corresponding price wave(s) is level with the upper or lower band(s) of the riverbank and/or shoreline envelope(s)."

    In summary...

    My system incorporates the idea of cycle theory, which holds that cyclical forces, both long and short, drive price movements, and can be used to anticipate turning points. It's also compatible with Edgar Peters' fractal market hypothesis, which views financial markets as fractal in the sense that they follow cyclical and replicable patterns—ones consisting of fragmented shapes that break down into parts which then replicate the shape of the whole.

    Additionally...

    I call my system Numerical Price Prediction because it relies on a methodology similar to that used by meteorologist to predict the weather—one based as much as possible on statistical analysis and mathematical probability. The idea is to gather and evaluate precise, up-to-date, quantitative data and use it to calculate the odds of price reaching designated values within a given time period by patterning the system's elements after the equations, wave functions, and computer models used in weather forecasting.

    It was also my goal to arrive at something reflective of flight dynamics, where the laws of physics explain how forces act on vessels to govern their performance, stability and control to ultimately determine their velocity and attitude with respect to time.

    Hence, in the same way pilots are aware that a Boeing 747 will lift off the ground by angling upward at two to three degrees per second with a maximum angle of 10 to 15 degrees; I as a retail trader now know the parameters dictating whether an asset is rising or falling from the perspective of a day, swing, or position trader.
     
    Last edited: Nov 11, 2022
    #32     Nov 11, 2022
  3. expiated

    expiated

    Much thanks!

    (Someday I'll have somebody much smarter than me explain everything you wrote in plain English.)
     
    #33     Nov 11, 2022
  4. expiated

    expiated

    Exactly!
     
    #34     Nov 11, 2022
  5. expiated

    expiated

    Blah, blah, blah, blah. I would LOVE to have an independently supervised trading contest between you and me. It wouldn't matter if it were one day or ten years. I have no doubt I would blow you out of the water. Action speaks louder than words. My journals don't make money...the system they helped me design does. People like you talk, talk, talk...but it all amounts to NOTHING!

    Enough of you guys. You are now on ignore, my man.

    P.S. I don't "eyeball" my charts. I TRADE them, and they WORK!
     
    #35     Nov 11, 2022
  6. that's all you took away from my post? lol ok.

    challenges me to a contest, puts me on ignore so he can dodge.

    this is why I don't try to help anyone. enter the World Cup in 2023, because I will be. we'll see who does what.
     
    #36     Nov 11, 2022
  7. themickey

    themickey

    Jesus, I've read gibberish before but this is a beauty!
     
    #37     Nov 12, 2022
    SunTrader and lucysparabola like this.
  8. alistera

    alistera

    In that case are you sure it's a good idea, they are simple foundations of prop, but I guess everyone has to try, when it goes pear shaped let me know and can pass the traders on to another entity if they are still interested.
     
    #38     Nov 12, 2022
  9. expiated

    expiated

    Will do!

    Though I must admit, I read you post very quickly. For example, I was wondering, "How is anyone going to appropriate my Internet Protocol Address?" Now I realize you were referring to "intellectual property." I'll read it more slowly next time, when I have a spare moment.
     
    #39     Nov 12, 2022
  10. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    lol IP uhhhh-ddress - JBO Joyfully Believing in the One - someone point expi aka PropShop Empresario to wikipedia/investopedia before he further embarrasses himself.
     
    #40     Nov 12, 2022
    lucysparabola likes this.