No luck in this regard so far (though it IS only the weekend). But, now that I've printed out and memorized my strategies, I think the essence of what I'm doing is actually basic enough for me to code adequate signals using EA Builder.com... Once I've accumulated enough funds trading these signals manually, rather than hire a team of programmers to automate them, it ought to be easy enough for me to simply hire a team of "junior traders" to work 'round the clock in three to eight hour shifts. We can even make the work environment a really fun place to be, so long as they don't miss a single signal/alert. Then they can "buzz" me to stop whatever I'm doing (including sleeping) whenever an EA sounds the alarm, so I can hop on my "fully loaded" computer/monitor to make the corresponding trades, whether I'm at home, at work or halfway around the world.
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Based on the trading I did over the previous 24-hour market cycle, I specified (in writing) what my charts seemed to suggest constituted the unique preeminent price flow channel as well as the measure promoting itself as each asset's "locus of control" for crude oil, natural gas, gold, silver and foreign currency pairs. Based on these guidelines, I coded the following alerts for my Forex charts... The signals suggest potential developing setups for long or short position entry levels. However, it is NOT advisable to act on the indicators blindly in that they could be highlighting reversals in the intraday trend instead. For example, in the last few minutes AUDUSD has sounded four alarms to sell the pair, but I've not yet done so in that nothing has confirmed or validated such action so far; and in fact, I think it is more likely that at 0.6608 the Aussie-U.S. dollar IS switching from a bearish to a bullish intraday bias (so that I will actually be looking to BUY the pair).
I did a 24-hour stint during the previous trading cycle to gather the info I needed to optimize the charts I'm presently using and to code corresponding alerts, one of which is referenced in the above quote. This necessitated my spending the lion's share of the last 12 hours sleeping—which left a minimal amount of time for trading. Nonetheless, in applying half of the principles coming out of the resulting insights, I was still able to generate a very modest profit trading my Prime Intermarket Group demo account, making only six trades, none of which included the most profitable tactic, which would have been entering one or more positions as price experienced a reversal in the intraday trend... However, when I printed out the report, it said that only five of my trades resulted in a gain, and that I had one loss... In any case, as long as the daily success rate was somewhere in the neighborhood of 85% (which is the minimum I find acceptable) I'm satisfied. Going forward however, I plan to reserve at least two days during the week where I trade straight through the Sydney, London and New York sessions to maximize the number of positions I take AND the size of the profit generated per each position.
Friday | May 10, 2024 So, what have we learned from the Numerical Price Prediction forecast models? FOREX After probably at least a couple of years of debate, I've come to settle on neither the 20- nor the 30-minute measures as the backbone of day trading foreign currency pairs, but have instead reached the conclusion that the "locus of control" resides with the 43-minute baseline. The direction in which to trade is determined by the positional relationship of the 13-minute baseline to this measure. If the 13-minute MA is above the 43-minute MA, then the "actionable" trend is bullish. If the 13-minute MA is below the 43-minute MA, then it makes sense to sell; with the 15-minute price range envelope at 0.03% and 0.05% deviation contouring the typical fluctuations of rates above and below the 13-minute baseline, and accordingly, suggesting when and where to enter positions as well as reasonable/rational take-profit targets and stop-loss levels. The two-minute price range envelope at 0.01% (and 0.02%) deviation tracks the ebb and flow of price within (and beyond) the 15-minute envelope, except it is extremely unstable, and for this reason, the six-minute price flow channel at 0.01% deviation is also plotted on the chart to provide a much clearer picture as to when rates are rising and when they are falling between the 15-minute measure's upper and lower bands. Possible U-turns in the Intraday trend are signaled by reversals in the 13-minute baseline, so of course, this situation also suggests when and where to enter (even more profitable) positions. GOLD The "money measure" when it comes to gold is the ten-minute price range envelope at 0.06% deviation, with this same measure also constituting gold's "locus of control." Fluctuations inside (and beyond) this measure are tracked by the 4¼-minute price range envelope at 0.04% deviation. Given the relative abundance of instability in this (the ten-minute) measure, the 21-minute baseline is also plotted on the chart to help clarify the true direction of the "actionable" trend. Additional assistance is provided by the 51-minute baseline, since gold's "ultimate" destination from an intraday perspective is north if price action is taking place primarily above this measure, and south if the faster measures are mainly painting below it. The domain within which gold's typical breadth of intraday values tend to confine themselves is defined by the 51-minute price range envelope at 0.30% deviation; though price will occasionally veer to 0.50% deviation, or even 0.90% in the most extreme cases. When there is not much of a day-to-day trend, gold's intraday trend normally reverses direction in the vicinity of the upper or lower band of the three-hour price range envelope at 0.40% deviation. But should it fail to do so, don't be surprised to see the slope of the three-hour baseline (as represented by the associated lower-panel histogram) breach the 0.696 or -0.696 level, in which case, it is probably time to adopt more of a swing trading mindset. SILVER For the "locus of control" when it comes to silver, I'm looking at the 51-minute baseline, with the "money measure" consisting of the 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.10% and 0.30% deviation. Like gold, silver too makes use of a 21-minute and a 51-minute baseline, but also includes a 21-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation. So long as the faster measure remains below the slower MA, one's primary interest should be in entering short positions. Of course, if the faster MA is above the slower one, the opposite is true; and in either case, the contrarian band of the 21-minute channel at 0.20% deviation constitutes a reasonable/rational stop-loss level. CRUDE OIL It would appear that the 21-minute baseline is oil's "money measure." Yet, if we drill down to lower-time-frame charts, we find that this role actually belongs to the 13-minute price flow channel at 0.10% deviation (to be more precise). That said, locus of control goes to the 51-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation, with the position of its corresponding moving average above or below the two-hour baseline helping to make clear if the intraday bias/sentiment is bullish or bearish. Moreover, crude oil tends to be bullish if and when price action is taking place above the upper band of the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation; or bearish if taking place below the lower band of the same. NATURAL GAS As with oil, it would appear that the 21-minute baseline is this commodity's reigning "money measure," though once again, things change if we drill down to the microscopic level, where gas’ spasmodic price action makes things pretty unclear. On a one-minute chart, the best bet is to confer with the mixed or consensus opinion of the ten- AND 30-minute baselines combined, along with the slope of the 51-minute price range envelope at 1% deviation. Accordingly, the preeminent price flow of natural gas is conveyed by the slope of the 51-minute baseline (like with crude oil); and as with the other fuel, additional clarity is provided in the form of the position of this measure above or below the two-hour baseline. Furthermore, natural gas’ day-to-day sentiment is represented by the slope of the seven-hour measure(s), which can be of great assistance in pinpointing the low or high of the day (as appropriate) depending on the direction in which the daily trend is headed.
Revised guidelines... SILVER Like gold, silver makes use of the 51-minute baseline, except that here, it is this measure that possesses "locus of control," with silver’s "money measure" consisting of the 8½-minute price range envelope at 0.10% and 0.30% deviation. And again, like gold, silver also makes use of a 21-minute baseline, except it is accompanied by a 21-minute price flow channel at 0.20% deviation. So long as this measure remains below the slower 51-minute MA, one's primary interest should be in entering short positions. Of course, if the faster MA is above the slower one, the opposite is true; and in either case, the contrarian band of the 21-minute channel at 0.20% deviation constitutes a reasonable/rational stop-loss level. CRUDE OIL It would appear that the 21-minute price flow channel at 0.11% deviation is oil's "money measure." Yet, if we drill down to lower-time-frame charts, we find that this role actually belongs to the 13-minute price flow channel at 0.10% deviation (to be more precise). That said, locus of control goes to the 51-minute price range envelope at 0.20% deviation, with the position of its corresponding moving average above or below the two-hour baseline helping to make clear if the intraday bias/sentiment is bullish or bearish. Moreover, crude oil tends to be bullish if and when price action is taking place above the upper band of the eight-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation; or bearish if taking place below the lower band of the same. NATURAL GAS As with oil, it would appear that the 21-minute price flow channel is this commodity's reigning "money measure," except at 0.20% deviation instead of 0.11%. Yet once again, things change if we drill down to the microscopic level, where gas’ spasmodic price action makes things pretty unclear. On a one-minute chart, the best bet is to confer with the mixed or consensus opinion of the ten- AND 30-minute baselines combined (rather than the 21-minute envelope), along with the slope of the 51-minute price range envelope at 1% deviation. Accordingly, the preeminent price flow of natural gas is conveyed by the slope of the 51-minute baseline (like with crude oil); and as with the other fuel, additional clarity is provided in the form of the position of this measure above or below the two-hour baseline. Furthermore, natural gas’ day-to-day sentiment is represented by the slope of the seven-hour measure(s), which can be of great assistance in pinpointing the daily low or daily high (as appropriate) depending on the direction in which the day-to-day trend is headed.
SYNTHESIZING THE GUIDELINES Gold and Silver have similar "money measures." With gold, it's a ten-minute envelope at 0.06% deviation, and with silver, it's an 8½-minute envelope at 0.10% and 0.30% deviation. (Foreign currency pairs are quite different, expressing the gist of where the short-term trend is headed via a six-minute channel at 0.01% deviation.) Gold, silver, crude oil and natural gas all make use of the 21-minute measure; gold in tandem with the ten-minute "money measure" envelope to confirm the direction of the actionable trend; silver to convey the bias/sentiment of the intraday price flow AND to calculate stop-loss levels via the associated price range envelope at 0.20% deviation; crude oil as a fallacious "money measure" channel at 0.11% deviation on higher-time-frame charts—though it's actually the 13-minute channel at 0.20% deviation, as revealed by lower-time-frame charts; and natural gas, once again as a fallacious "money measure" channel at 0.11% deviation on higher-time-frame charts—though it's actually the ten- and 30-minute baselines that serve in this capacity, as revealed by lower-time frame charts. Foreign currency pairs, which track price fluctuations above and below the 13-minute baseline after being rejected by the upper and lower bands of the 15-minute price range envelope at 0.03% (and 0.05%) deviation, are directed/driven by the 43-minute "locus of control" baseline; whereas all four of the commodity charts plot a 51-minute measure in one capacity or another... Gold uses the positional relationship of price action above or below this baseline to clarify its "ultimate" destination from an intraday perspective; silver views this baseline as its money measure; crude oil uses the envelope at 0.20% deviation as its money measure (to indicate where the ten- and 30-minute price flows will eventually/ultimately be going) AND in concert with the two-hour baseline to confirm intraday bias/sentiment; and natural gas also uses this measure's envelop in the same fashion—in both respects—except at 1% deviation. And finally crude oil uses the eight-hour price flow channel above and below 0.30% deviation to help suggest the possible trajectory of the daily trend, whereas natural gas uses the seven-hour baseline in this role, making if very useful in recognizing the potential daily lows or daily highs (as appropriate) depending on the direction in which it is sloping.(Gold uses the three-hour price range envelope at 0.40% deviation in a similar manner.)
If and when price breaches the contrarian band of the 30-minute price range envelope at 0.50% deviation, it increases the statistical probability that natural gas might be in the process of maneuvering a reversal in the intraday trend.
What are the changes in direction that offer the greatest intraday returns with respect to each of the five assets? REMARKABLY RADICAL REVERSALS: Forex – the 13-minute baseline Gold – the three-hour price range envelope at 0.30% deviation. Look for the matching band of the 51-minute envelope (at the same deviation level) to begin outpacing the descent or ascent of its slower cousin. Silver – the 51-minute baseline Crude Oil – the 60-minute and especially the more stable 90-minute baselines—as confirmed by their crossing over the three-hour baseline (13-minute price action will cross over to the opposite side of all these measures.) Natural Gas – reversal in the 30-minute baseline, as confirmed by its crossing over the two-hour baseline