Position Trading Bull and Bear Markets: Based on anecdotal observations of the major U.S. indices between 2004 to present, Numerical Price Prediction defines a (tentative) bull market as one during which the eight-week baseline is rising, and a (tentative) bear market as one during which the eight-week baseline is falling. (Such signs as a 20% increase or decrease from the previous high or low [over a two-month or more time span], etc., are not given any regard whatsoever.) Tentative bias/sentiment is confirmed first by the twelve-week baseline, and then finally validated by the 16-week measure.
Numerical Price Prediction (NPP) seeks to mirror the methodology used by meteorologist to predict the weather (i.e., numerical weather prediction). As such, it is based as much as possible on statistical analysis and mathematical probability. The general idea is to gather and evaluate precise, up-to-date, quantitative data and use it to calculate the odds of price reaching designated values within a given time period by patterning the system's elements after the equations, wave functions, and computer generated images used in weather forecasting. This data is represented in the form of graphical charts which constitute forecast models of current market conditions that traders can then use to help make precise, well-timed trades. It is hoped that the following explanations regarding the language and terms used when I make my own forecasts will help clarify the appropriate methodology for interpreting the corresponding graphics produced by NPP charts: The Immediate Actionable Short-Term Trend The immediate actionable short-term trend is represented by the 20-minute "mason wasp" or "Battenburg" baseline. ALL INTRADAY TRADES SHOULD MATCH THE DIRECTION IN WHICH THIS MEASURE IS SLOPING!!! Any moving averages that are faster than the 20-minute baseline appear on charts merely to help clarify in which direction the "mason wasp moving average" is ultimately headed based on their positional relationship with the measure, or for assisting in the timing of entries and exits. The "Gist" of Intraday Price Flow The "gist" of intraday price flow is conveyed by the 60-minute standard and proprietary measures. Given that these measures are too lagging to rely on in terms of dictating the direction of one's trades, their primary value is in defining price ranges that, along with the "fastest" moving averages (primarily the five- and ten-minute measures), can also assist in pinpointing optimal entry and exit levels. The Overall General Intraday Price Flow Unlike the 60-minute measures (which fluctuate too frequently and are too sensitive to less significant and somewhat momentary price movements to suggest the "ultimate" direction in which rates are headed at the intraday level) the two-hour and four-hour price range envelopes offer smoother, more stable pictures of where prices are likely to end up in the long run, relatively speaking. So again, similar to the 60-minute measures, their primary value is in defining intraday price ranges which, along with the 20-minute baseline, help to pinpoint reversals in the actionable short-term trend. They also reveal whether the trades that have the greatest odds or highest statistical probability of leading to profitable outcomes are those that involve buying a given asset or selling it.
Saturday | December 24, 2022 | (Christmas Eve) Buy-and-Hold Swing Trading... I've yet to concoct a "send in your order and walk away" Nadex Knock-Outs version of NPP with a nearly 100% success rate. I hope this one (which I'm electing not to describe) is the first. It recommends the following: Be looking for the trigger signal to buy GBPJPY somewhere around its present level at 159.95. At 0.9331, USDCHF is ready for a short position as soon as you get the trigger signal to sell. Sell AUDJPY between its current location at 89.12 up to 92.07. (Wait for it to climb north and then turn south again.) Buy EURUSD near 1.0570. Buy EURGBP in the 0.8689...0.8710 neighborhood. (Wait for trigger signal, of course.) Sell USDJPY between its current location at 132.79 up to 137.50. (Wait for it to climb north and then turn south again.)
Using the table of contents as a course syllabus... Currency Trading For Dummies, 3rd Edition by Kathleen Brooks, Brian Dolan Released February 2015 Publisher(s): For Dummies ISBN: 9781118989807 Part I: Getting Started with Currency Trading Chapter 1: What is Currency Trading? Speculating as an enterprise Currencies as the trading vehicle What Affects Currency Rates? Fundamentals drive the currency market Unless it’s the technicals that are driving the currency market Or it may be something else Developing a Trading Plan Finding your trading style Planning the trade Executing the Trading Plan from Start to Finish Chapter 2: What Is the Forex Market? Getting Inside the Numbers Trading for spot Speculating in the currency market Getting liquid without getting soaked Around the World in a Trading Day The opening of the trading week Trading in the Asia-Pacific session Trading in the European/London session Trading in the North American session Key daily times and events The U.S. dollar index Currencies and Other Financial Markets Gold Oil Stocks Bonds Getting Started with a Practice Account Chapter 3: Who Trades Currencies? Meet the Players The Interbank Market Is "The Market" Getting inside the interbank market Bank to bank and beyond Hedgers and Financial Investors Hedging your bets Global investment flows Speculators Hedge funds Day traders, big and small Governments and Central Banks Currency reserve management The Bank for International Settlements The Group of Twenty Chapter 4: The Mechanics of Currency Trading Buying and Selling Simultaneously Currencies come in pairs The long and the short of it Profit and Loss Margin balances and liquidations Unrealized and realized profit and loss Calculating profit and loss with pips Factoring profit and loss into margin calculations Understanding Rollovers and Interest Rates Currency is money, after all Value dates and trade settlement Market holidays and value dates Applying rollovers Understanding Currency Prices Bids and offers Spreads Executing a Trade Trading online Orders Part II: Driving Forces behind Currencies Chapter 5: Looking at the Big Picture Currencies and Interest Rates The future is now: Interest rate expectations Relative interest rates Monetary Policy 101 Looking at benchmark interest rates Easy money, tight money Unconventional easing Watching the central bankers Interpreting monetary policy communications Official Currency Policies and Rhetoric Currency policy or currency stance? Calling the shots on currencies Taking a closer look at currency market intervention Financial stability Debts, deficits, and growth Gauging credit risk Geopolitical Risks and Events Gauging risk sentiment Risk on or risk off? Chapter 6: Understanding and Applying Market News and Information Sourcing Market Information The art of boarding a moving train Taking the pulse of the market Rumors: Where there’s smoke, there’s fire Putting Market Information into Perspective: Focusing on Themes Driving fundamental themes Analyzing technical themes Reality Check: Expectations versus Actual The role of consensus expectations Pricing in and pricing out forecasts When good expectations go bad Anticipating alternative outcome scenarios Chapter 7: Getting Down and Dirty with Fundamental Data Finding the Data Economics 101 for Currency Traders: Making Sense of Economic Data The labor market The consumer The business sector The structural Assessing Economic Data Reports from a Trading Perspective Understanding and revising data history Getting to the core Market-Moving Economic Data Reports from the United States Labor-market reports Consumer-level data reports Business-level data reports Structural data reports Major International Data Reports Eurozone Japan United Kingdom Canada Australia New Zealand China Chapter 8: Getting to Know the Major Currency Pairs The Big Dollar: EUR/USD Trading fundamentals of EUR/USD Trading behavior of EUR/USD Tactical trading considerations in EUR/USD East Meets West: USD/JPY Trading fundamentals of USD/JPY Price action behavior of USD/JPY Tactical trading considerations in USD/JPY The Other Majors: Sterling and Aussie The British pound: GBP/USD The new kid in town: Trading the Aussie Understanding Forex Positioning Data How to interpret the data The FX fix Forex and regulation Chapter 9: Minor Currency Pairs and Cross-Currency Trading Trading the Minor Pairs Trading fundamentals of USD/CAD Trading fundamentals of NZD/USD Tactical trading considerations in USD/CAD, AUD/USD, and NZD/USD Trading the Scandies: SEK, NOK, and DKK Swedish krona — “Stocky” Norwegian krone — “Nokkie” Danish krone — “Copey” Cross-Currency Pairs Why trade the crosses? Stretching the legs Trading the JPY crosses Trading the EUR crosses Part III: Developing a Trading Plan Chapter 10: Training and Preparing for Battle Finding the Right Trading Style for You Real-world and lifestyle considerations Making time for market analysis Technical versus fundamental analysis Different Strokes for Different Folks Short-term, high-frequency day trading Medium-term directional trading Long-term macroeconomic trading Trading on Auto-Pilot Potential inputs to drive an EA system Caveat emptor on models Using social media for trading: The power of the crowd Developing Trading Discipline Taking the emotion out of trading Managing your expectations Keeping your ammunition dry Chapter 11: Cutting the Fog with Technical Analysis The Philosophy of Technical Analysis What is technical analysis? What technical analysis is not Forms of technical analysis Finding support and resistance Waiting for confirmation The Art of Technical Analysis Bar charts and candlestick charts Drawing trend lines Recognizing chart formations Fibonacci retracements The Science of Technical Analysis Momentum oscillators and studies Trend-identifying indicators Trading with clouds — Ichimoku charts Chapter 12: Identifying Trade Opportunities Developing a Routine for Market Analysis Performing Multiple-Time-Frame Technical Analysis Identifying Support and Resistance Levels Trend lines Highs and lows Congestion zones Fibonacci retracements Ichimoku levels Looking for Symmetry with Channels Drawing price channels Listening to Momentum Factoring momentum analysis into your routine Looking at momentum in multiple time frames Trading on divergences between price and momentum Using momentum for timing entry and exit Trading on Candlestick Patterns Building a Trade Strategy from Start to Finish Chapter 13: Risk-Management Considerations Managing Risk Is More Than Avoiding Losses Leverage amplifies gains and losses — and expectations Knowing your margin requirements Market liquidity, volatility, and gap risk We have a winner here! Protecting your profits Placing your orders effectively Applying Risk Management to the Trade Analyzing the trade setup to determine position size Doing the math to put the risk in cash terms Devising the trading plan in terms of risk Choosing Your Trading Broker Different business models of brokers Financial risks of brokers Technology Issues and Contingency Planning Part IV: Executing a Trading Plan Chapter 14: Pulling the Trigger Getting into the Position Buying and selling at the current market Averaging into a position Trading breakouts Making the Trade Correctly Buying and selling online Placing your orders Chapter 15: Managing the Trade Monitoring the Market while Your Trade Is Active Following the market with rate alerts Staying alert for news and data developments Keeping an eye on other financial markets Updating Your Trade Plan as Time Marches On Trend lines move over time Impending events may require trade plan adjustments Updating Order Levels as Prices Progress Increasing take-profit targets Tightening stop-loss orders to protect profits Chapter 16: Closing the Position and Evaluating Your Results Closing Out the Trade Taking profit and stopping out Setting it and forgetting it: Letting the market trigger your order Squaring up after events have happened Exiting at the right time Getting out when the price is right Assessing Your Trading Strategy Identifying what you did right and wrong Updating your trading record Part V: The Part of Tens Chapter 17: Ten Habits of Successful Currency Traders Trading with a Plan Anticipating Event Outcomes Staying Flexible Being Prepared for Trading Keeping Technically Alert Going with the Flow/Trading the Range Focusing on a Few Pairs Protecting Profits Trading with Stop Losses Watching Other Markets Chapter 18: Ten Rules of Risk Management Trade with Stop-Loss Orders Leverage to a Minimum Trade with a Plan Stay on Top of the Market Trade with an Edge Step Back from the Market Take Profit Regularly Understand Currency-Pair Selection Double-Check for Accuracy Take Money out of Your Trading Account Chapter 19: Ten Great Resources Technical Analysis of the Financial Markets Japanese Candlestick Charting Techniques Elliott Wave Principle Technical Analysis For Dummies The Book of Five Rings Market Wizards: Interviews with Top Traders Come into My Trading Room Zero Hedge BabyPips.com Forex Factory Appendix: Trading Strategies What’s Your Sign? Determining Your Trader Type Looking at Trading Strategies Based on Trader Type Strategies for the scalper Strategies for the swing trader Strategies for the position trader
Wednesday | January 11, 2023 During the last few weeks, you have been completely ignoring this tentative protocol for new junior traders, so go back now and compare how it fits in with the tentative protocol you are using presently (in blue). Before the start of each new 24-hour market cycle, view the daily charts to determine whether each currency pair on your watch list is bullish, bearish or neutral. For those pairs which evidence a bias in one direction or the other, monitor their hourly charts over the three trading sessions and note if and when candlesticks venture to the "far" side of the daily trend. Whenever and wherever a maneuver to the far side of the daily trend occurs, continue to monitor the hourly charts, noting if and/or when the intraday trend reverses direction to resume a course in sync with that of the day-to-day trend. At such times, determine the advisability of entering a position in the direction recommended by the two aligned measures. (At this point, let's define the daily trend as the slope of the forty-minute price range envelope.) Also, whenever volatility and liquidity are reaching peak levels, check the daily charts to ascertain whether any of the exchange rates have breached their projected daily price ranges. Whenever this situation exists, you will want to monitor the relevant pair(s) on a lower-time-frame chart for if and/or when the intraday trend (forty-minute measure) reverses direction, undertaking a mean reversion/regression toward the mean (the 24-hour baseline). If so, this is your signal to enter a position in the corresponding direction (if deemed appropriate). Moreover, if volatility/liquidity is high, watch for intraday breakouts on lower-time-frame charts, as conveyed by a refusal of the the faster moving averages to drop "behind" the "Battenberg" (or "mason wasp") moving average, poised above or below the "black cloud" (the 20-minute baseline poised above or below the 60-minute price range envelope at 0.10% deviation). And finally, generally speaking, you will want to look for opportunities to enter positions as rates come out of pullbacks (conveyed by the faster moving averages) during those periods or intervals where the slope of the "black cloud" and the slope of the "Battenberg" or "mason wasp" moving averages are headed in the same direction. Most recently, if the two-hour and four-hour price range envelopes are both sloping in the same direction, look to enter positions when candlesticks make contact with the far side of the 40-minute price range envelope at 0.15% to 0.25% deviation. However, to increase the probability of a successful outcome, add the condition that the candlesticks must also be on the far side of the two-hour price range envelope, and must have just been rejected by the 30-minute temporal support or resistance level.
Thursday, January 12, 2023 For the longest time, NPP has regarded the 20-minute baseline as the backbone of intraday trading. That view is now being amended, at least on a trial basis, and shifted to the 13-minute baseline instead.
What is Series 56? Series 56 Exam is the Proprietary Trader's Qualification Exam, or Series 56 exam, it was created to assess a candidate's knowledge in the areas of securities markets, trading and reporting practices, applicable products, investment strategies and anti-fraud provisions. There are no prerequisites to this exam. What is Series 57? The Series 57 exam measures the degree to which each candidate possesses the knowledge needed to perform the critical functions of a securities trader, including executing transactions in equity, preferred or convertible debt securities effected otherwise than on a securities exchange (proprietary trading). What is Series 65? The Series 65 exam—the NASAA Investment Advisers Law Examination—is a North American Securities Administrators Association (NASAA) exam administered by FINRA. The exam consists of 130 scored questions. Candidates have 180 minutes to complete the exam.
How did I miss this thread? The OP is opening a prop firm... he's trading Nadex and deriv.com digitals with $1-$5 payouts.