Qtrader....you got a hard field to plow and a tough row to hoe convincing the warm-hearted folks on ET about scalping. Seems like most think it is riskier than other types of trading. But then most traders lose ...I hear say.....so logically ......well you get the picture ...read between the lines....correcto? I therefore STAND upon this posture and shall not be moved: my money is ONLY at risk WHEN it is in the market. So.........logically scalping is LESS risk, not more. Especially, if there is no such thing as “noise” in the markets which is a concept I embrace to the utter chagrin of many...along with averaging down and a myriad of other hotly debated stances that will curl your hair... Good luck and may the $$$ never cease to roll in.... P.S. don’t forget to spread the modus operandi around. It won’t hurt but should actually enhance your system. The more that do it the merrier trading becomes IMO and more $$$$ that pour in, me thinks. Like a self fulfilling prophecy. “Cast your bread upon the water”....
Anyone who says they scalp with a less than 90% win rate everyday will have a very tough time making consistent money. 94.6 % prints money but even that consistently day in day out can still lose at times depending on size because there are so many different ways to get at a win rate. win rate metrics while important are extremely misleading and even more importantly is the win rate on a flat to flat total trade basis or per lot? and is a trade that breaks even a loss or gain. This metric is fun but also misleads masses. per lot with fees 1 6 loss 1 10 gain 1 10 gain 1 20 gain 1 10 gain 1 5 gain 1 10 gain 1 5 gain 1 5 gain 1 5 gain 1 5 gain total = 11 lots. 10 wins 1 loss win loss ratio is 11:1 or 91% the gain is 85 the loss is 6. net gain is 79 on 11 contracts. what if this was ratio per trade not per lot flat to flat! so every 2 lots is 1 flat trade set we have 5.5 trade sets or units. we have a 100% win rate flat to flat. You tell me or show me how a win rate tells yoi anything. Lets say the next 1 lot trade completes the 6th unit and lets say it loses 79 dollars with fees. 1 79 dollar loss so look: 12 lots 6 trade units of 2 lots each and a win loss per lot of 12:2 or 6:1 or 83.3% winners yet the account made zero for the day. you had 6 trade units with 100% win rate and 12 traded lots with 83.3% win rate. The win rate is over rated for any type of actual profitability forecasting but it can be used as a quick way to see if your system is out of whack or if the mkt has changed and if you are the constant (rare) then you can say whoa per lot i am 70% today and normally im 90% what happened during those 20% higher loss rate today? was it slippage what was it that i can pinpoint as a valid proof of what happened in my account today and this is just scratching the surface. For fun post some better metrics off my examples. lets see what comes out as the best metric? fees are total 50 cents in 50 cents out or 1 dollar round turn. we gave 2 days worth of trades day 1. 11 lots 5.5 trade sets. 10 wins 1 loss plus 79 net day 2. 12 lots 6 trade sets 10 wins 2 losses what metrics are better? fees all in are 1 dollar RT.
I'm well aware of pissing some people with this thread, but.......that's my point. Been on ET for years and all I keep hearing is that " I know there are traders who make money..." blah blah blah........ What I can guarantee is that these posters won't be one of them, unless they can convince me otherwise. If they have a gut to show me their blotter that they can double their account consistently. Then, they get my attention. Anything else they say just sounds like wind blowing through my ear. Btw, I don't need to convince EVERYONE, but to those who work hard and have passion in this field that if they keep working hard and making commitment to it, they'll make it one day.
Listen to this... if I'm still struggling with my trading, I won't be wasting even one single minute on ET. Instead, I'd be digging my head into my trading system to figure out where the bug is.
As I repeatedly said few times on ET that I read all kind of books within last decades. The problem with reading books is that these materials can only help you to build knowledge, not trading skills. Trading skills can only be achieved by yourself. My point is you can throw me all kind of stuff in this thread from what you read in the books, I won't care unless you can proof that you are indeed a profitable trader. Let me use this example to show what I mean. If you think you've trading skills and that you are trading SPY related instruments as a swing or position trader, were you able to pick up an important clue that the probability for market to close in red last week is high? Those who observe charts long enough are well aware of that market has a tendency to pull back most of the time when it forms a black bar at a very top. If these traders were able to observe this last weekend, they would take advantage of it to make money because the odds are with them.
One last post for now is that if you come to this thread to learn, I don't mind to share my knowledge and experience because there are so many things about market structure that books won't tell. I learned all of these on my own. Otherwise, I'm NOT here to get anyone advise. Period.
only on ET guy titles post....scalpers make money! same guy same thread same post same guy posts a weekly chart!!!
Speaking of which, market left an important clue for this coming week. I'm curious to know if any swing/position trader here with trading skills can spot it