Proof of How Universal Mask Wearing Stops Covid Spread ?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by piezoe, Apr 27, 2021.

  1. jem

    jem

    Depends on the diet... doesn't it.

    Exactly right... if you put on a mask and lockdown... the numbers improve...

    But.. when you leave the house and start eating what you previously ate...your diet will almost surely fail.




     
    #131     May 3, 2021
  2. jem

    jem

    Hey piezoe

    Why is Covid ramping up in a very serous manner right now...while non mask wearing places are see plateaus and downtrends.


    On a relative basis you might say Covid is exploding right now in Japan.


    This chart completely invalidates anything you have produced so far to support the title of this thread and your first post.


    https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/japan/







     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
    #132     May 3, 2021
  3. piezoe

    piezoe

    I haven' a clue. Do you? Wouldn't you have to have data and facts to be qualified to take a stab at a question like this?
     
    #133     May 3, 2021
  4. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    As stated many times, face mask wearing is only part of the puzzle. It does not fix other guidelines that are being ignored / no longer being used. Eventually, the virus mutates and attack those in 2021 that were low risk in 2020.

    Japan took a chance via easing Covid restrictions in key populated areas and removing it completely in other areas. Although their numbers are increasing (the phrase 4th wave is being used)...overall they have very low numbers in comparison to the rest of the world except for a few countries.

    Most in Japan wear cloth face masks during their Covid wave increases. The Covid variants require N95s or better plus vaccinations.

    Japan's vaccination is one of the worst in the world and now the younger population that are less face mask compliant are the ones becoming more infected.

    Japan can easily reduced their numbers via the vaccination route but that's very problematic due to their historical bad experience with vaccines...resulting in Japan having one of the worst vaccine-hesitancy in the world.

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    Fourth wave takes shape as COVID-19 cases increase across Japan

    Japan-Covid-Infection-Increasing.png

    What appears to be a fourth wave of COVID-19 is materializing in Japan mere weeks after the country began easing virus countermeasures.
    • There were concerns that beginning to lift the state of emergency in early February in the nation’s most populated regions would trigger a viral rebound, but perhaps not so soon or in so many parts of the country.
    The resurgence is most pronounced where the order was lifted in early February, which implies the unsettling possibility that in the greater Tokyo metropolitan area — where the declaration was ended weeks later on March 22 — a delayed uptick is quickly approaching.

    As the central government weighs stiffer restrictions, regional leaders have already begun to sound the alarm.

    On Wednesday, Osaka Prefecture reported 599 cases of COVID-19, the highest one-day figure since Jan. 23.

    Of the country’s 47 prefectures, 34 saw a significant jump in new cases between March 21 and 28 compared with previous weeks, most notably in Miyagi, Aichi, Hyogo, Okinawa, Osaka and Yamagata prefectures, as well as in Tokyo.

    “We have entered a fourth wave,” Osaka Gov. Hirofumi Yoshimura said Monday, outlining his plans to submit a formal request to the central government to designate Osaka an area in need of stricter virus measures in accordance with a legal amendment passed in February. That would give him the ability to impose monetary fines on businesses that fail to comply with repeated requests to close early and a subsequent order to do so.

    Those measures could take effect in Osaka as early as Thursday, according to media reports.

    Aichi Gov. Hideaki Omura said Monday that new cases are rebounding “without a doubt,” while Miyagi Gov. Yoshihiro Murai said the prefecture has no more hospital beds to spare for COVID-19 patients.

    The state of emergency — which was declared in early January in 11 prefectures, then extended in all but one place, Tochigi Prefecture — was lifted in six prefectures in early February, including Osaka.

    The order wasn’t lifted in the remaining locations — the capital and the neighboring prefectures of Kanagawa, Chiba and Saitama, which together comprise the greater Tokyo metropolitan area — until March 22.

    Japan-Covid-Infection-Increasing-1.png
    The natural assumption is that, like Osaka, the capital region — Japan’s most populated area — is bound for a delayed resurgence.

    It may have already started.

    Nationwide cases have been steady or climbing since early March, but the increase has intensified in recent weeks.

    While the latest outbreak is still in its early stages, there are several factors that differentiate the fourth wave from past ones, both in nature and size.
    • Regional outbreaks of varying severity, compounded by a deep fatigue felt by the millions eager to enjoy the warmer weather and a growing number of cases linked to more contagious variants of the virus, are contributing to an altogether different kind of domestic surge that experts fear may be impervious to past countermeasures.
    “The resurgence is disjointed across various parts of the country; coronavirus variants continue to spread at a faster rate and people are starting to relax due to virus fatigue,” said Koji Wada, a professor in public health at the International University of Health and Welfare and a member of the government’s expert panel on the virus. “We’re seeing a new kind of outbreak.”

    Over the past 15 months, Japan has experienced three waves of COVID-19, each bigger than the last.

    While older people accounted for the majority of those infected during the first wave, which peaked in April, the second wave in July consisted mostly of young people and cluster infections. The third wave, which topped out in early January, featured clusters occurring more broadly across different kinds of places — from office buildings and restaurants to homes and apartment buildings — which made it difficult for officials to trace infection routes.

    Kazuyuki Aihara, a professor at the University of Tokyo’s International Research Center for Neurointelligence, believes a rebound in foot traffic during the late stages of the state of emergency is to blame for the latest resurgence.

    Aihara is part of a team of researchers who recently announced the development of an early warning system for future outbreaks based on patient data, analysis of the mass movement of people in public places and transportation hubs, as well as the use of biomarkers — an indicator that health professionals can use to measure the presence or severity of an infectious disease.

    Japan-Covid-Infection-Increasing-2.png

    The team’s research was used to retroactively predict the peaks of Japan’s first, second and third wave.

    “People are going to start going outside, seeing friends and slowly but surely returning to normal life,” Aihara explained.

    Aihara has carried doubts about the government’s capacity to trace infections ever since he himself had a close contact last year, after a colleague became infected. He never received any calls from public officials, and nor was he told to isolate himself or seek a virus test, though he did both voluntarily.

    “It’s crucial that efforts to retrace infections and chase down clusters are improved dramatically, or else the virus will spread unchecked,” he said. “Reducing the flow of people might be the only way to prevent a massive outbreak.”

    Researchers from Tsukuba University believe that even if the vaccination schedule in Japan is sped up, the impact on the ongoing wave would be limited.

    According to their research, the outbreak in Tokyo could peak in May at 1,850 cases a day if the city doesn’t begin inoculating residents by then. Even if it does, and more than 35,000 residents are vaccinated daily, the report warned that the capital could still see more than 1,650 cases every day.

    Perhaps the most obvious concern is the size and length of the fourth wave. Several signs indicate the outbreak will be significant, especially since new cases were plateauing at a high level before it began.

    During the second wave, new cases peaked at 1,605 on Aug. 7. In comparison, on Tuesday nationwide cases topped 2,000, sparking concerns that new cases could surpass the third wave before older people are slated to start receiving vaccinations in April.
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    wrbtrader
     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
    #134     May 3, 2021
    piezoe likes this.
  5. jem

    jem

    For the same reasons you can't explain why cases are going up right now
    the title you gave this thread and your first post are comical.





     
    Last edited: May 3, 2021
    #135     May 3, 2021
  6. piezoe

    piezoe

    see wrbtrader's nice post immediately above. it seems that holds the answers you seek.
     
    #136     May 3, 2021
  7. jem

    jem

    1st of all that article supports everything I have been saying.
    Distancing...
    Closing borders...

    When they lifted restrictions they had a resurgence...

    The article being aware that this explosion of Covid seems to show distancing works but masks don't work.... provided this excuse...


    "Most in Japan wear cloth face masks during their Covid wave increases. The Covid variants require N95s or better plus vaccinations."

    I am fine with that excuse... there is slight chance its true.
    I would of course prefer data supporting the concept...of N95s working.
    but vaccination plus n-95s... OK

    So in short ... you were wrong pretending Japan's results proves masks work.


    By the way...I have made exceptions in my posts for custom fit N-95s figuring if they give the medical providers I know headaches they must be forcing people to suck most or all of their air in through the filter. Hence... if their filters work... they have a chance against covid.









     
    Last edited: May 4, 2021
    #137     May 4, 2021
    Buy1Sell2 likes this.
  8. piezoe

    piezoe

    The masks worn in Japan were cloth. The data suggests that these masks worked to suppress Covid transmittance. There can be little doubt the N95 masks are better still. But the data suggests cloth masks are a valuable deterrent of respiratory disease transmittance when compliance approaches 100%. That's my interpretation. Yours is different. That's fine with me.
     
    #138     May 4, 2021
    Ricter likes this.
  9. jem

    jem

    As a scientist... you would think you realize that Japan has had 4 waves of Covid... So masks have failed in preventing waves.... so how the hell could you possible prove they work whether there is 1 percent compliance or 100... you have no proof.

    Which is why you haven't offered any proof... just statements.
    You are rather dull minded for a scientist. Cut out the sugar.




     
    #139     May 4, 2021
  10. gwb-trading

    gwb-trading

    #140     May 4, 2021