Profitable trading .... a myth?

Discussion in 'Trading' started by George SoreAss, Jul 28, 2005.

  1. On the whole, would you say then that most people who trade, lose? It seems to be the recurring theme in this room?

    Also. Do most traders in prop firms make money do you think? hearing the Refco boys seems like they make good dough, does anyone actually have any horror stories about big losses lately, and if everyone seems to be making money in futures, who's losing. Sorry, it's just hard to get my head around, everyone I speak to seems to be making good money, who loses????

    :confused:
     
  2. dbell66

    dbell66

    Love your name! :D
     
  3. GSCO

    GSCO

    It's same as when you talk to people who come from the casino. It seems everyone figures they are up
    "a little bit" after they come from the casino.

    But we all know this mathematically impossible especially since casinos are putting up profitable numbers.

    I actually have one explanation for this. one word.

    DENIAL!!!

    it's easier to deny any losses than have to face the harsh reality that we as humans lose money.

    ..........oh, and if anybody asks, I am profitable in the market. hahahaha
     
  4. :D :D
     
  5. c_323_h

    c_323_h

    Yes, George SoreAss (that's the funniest handle I've heard anywhere), I think most trader's lose. IMO the odds are stacked against traders considering that there are many obstacles to overcome. Some of these include:

    1. Not having a plan/strategy and not sticking to it.

    2. Many new traders don't understand the psychological
    implications behind trading and dig themselves
    deeper into a hole of psychological damage.

    3. Overleverage.

    4. Undercapitalization.

    5. Not thinking in terms of probabilities.

    6. Concentrating on profits rather than risk/money mgmt.

    I'm sure there are more but can't think of any. Number 1 and 2 are the most important to me.

    I'll admit that I'm not a profitable trader. I've been trading without any clear plan or strategy that I've done so much psychological damage to myself.

    It's funny that I can recognize what I need to do to improve, but it's very hard to actually ingrain those beliefs into my mind and acually put them in practice. What I'm doing now is researching different mechanical systems and finding the best one that fits me so I can trade w/o emotions.

    The best thing I think a trader can do for himself is get a definite plan and understand the psychological aspects of trading.
     
  6. I am too *touch wood*, should I say have been - I'm a 15yr veteran of the mkts though, had my best spell going long in the bear mkts of 2000-02 ... what do you trade?
     
  7. George, look at the information you have provided this thread as to the answer to your own question. You are a 15 year vet of the Markets and still have to ask the question, is profitable trading a myth. You have spent 15 years reading books and trading the market instead of learning "from" the market. As long that continues it will become a self fulfilling prophesy.
     
  8. c_323_h

    c_323_h

    if you're talking to me, i invest in stocks and try to trade forex. Im looking into futures though because of tax advantages. i
     
  9. I've been trading since 1992 and have had 3 short winning streaks. First in bonds. Then in closed end funds and last in day trading.

    I am ahead about about 77k minus the taxes that I paid over 13 years. I'm retired and really don't have anything better to do.
     
  10. Yeah, I don't think the cash markets are that hard to make money from. I mean, the big pension funds dump and dump on a asset that's out of favour, you can sit there and think, hang on the fundamentals are good. Like in '98 and oil. Oil was just shy of $10. a barrel. The world needs oil right? well, it costs about $6 a barrel for the companies to extract it, so any cheaper and why bother extracting it. But the fact is "hot money" chases "hot assets" assets that you are likely to get a return from. Why buy oil at $10 a barrel when in 18 months time it'll still be $10 a barrel. But for us, the regular joes with our own money, there are always under priced assets, currencies or individual stocks to make money from.... what I have never in all my time in the mkt understood is, who's on the other side? Who sold the Dow at 10k a few months ago when everyone I know was loading up long? If everyone is making money in oil, who's losing money in oil?

    When I make money in the mkt , I can never ever ever understand (a) if it's that easy why isn't everyone doing it and (b) who the hell sold me that oil at $10. I was just wondering if anyone could finally put my mind at ease, coz it really stresses me out, and have a good anser for it...
     
    #10     Jul 28, 2005