Profitable pattern

Discussion in 'Trading' started by trader1974, Jan 4, 2020.

  1. trader1974

    trader1974

    The rank is also important
    IMG_20200105_155655.png
     
    #21     Jan 5, 2020
  2. dozu888

    dozu888

    you are wasting time. check the post I just made today regarding unfolding stories.

    where is the story when you look at an isolated chart.

    remember - you are not trading against some mysterious black box. you are trading against real humans with flesh and blood and the same emotions as yours... you need to figure out what hands they are holding and what emotions/thoughts they are having and you can make money.

    staring at chart all day is going at in the completely wrong way. waste of time.
     
    #22     Jan 5, 2020
  3. trader1974

    trader1974

    I know that it is very difficult Dozu, sometimes I imagine at home doing full-time trading, it is my illusion but ... you have to be realistic, trying to be a full-time trader is like wanting to reach the moon. It's the hardest thing I've tried to do in my life.
     
    #23     Jan 5, 2020
  4. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    It's the hardest thing you'll try to do if you trade with real money without gaining confidence in your trading via having numbers from backtest results to support what you see in the charts.

    Also, sometimes people use discussion forums to give them that confidence about what they see in the charts when they should be using their backtest results and then post those results at the forum to see what other think.

    Others even post their simulator results via screenshots of trade fills in broker platform too at forums in an effort to gain more confidence for real money trading so that trading is not the hardest thing they've ever done.

    wrbtrader
     
    #24     Jan 5, 2020
    trader1974 likes this.
  5. trader1974

    trader1974

    I know it is the best advice I can receive, what happens is that I have no idea of programming, but I understand that it is the only way. Thanks Wrb
     
    #25     Jan 5, 2020
  6. wrbtrader

    wrbtrader

    You can backtest without programming skills and you do not need to know programming to start simulator trading.

    First, know the rules of your trade strategy. Next, if you do not have historical data...start keeping basic stats of the pattern you see on your charts for each trading day going forward (start doing it tomorrow).

    Next, get a professional trade journal software that works with simulator trading at your broker. That professional trade journal software will do the quantitative statistical analysis for you about your simulator or real money trade performance.

    tradebench.com
    edgewonk.com
    tradervue.com
    tradingdiarypro.com
    stocktickr.com
    journalsqrd.com
    tradingdiary.pro
    mxprofit.com
    trademetria.com

    There's a few out there freely shared that are excel but that was years ago.

    Yet, today's brokers usually have some kind'uv basic statistical analysis embedded in their platform that gives you win:loss ratios, MAEs, MFEs, average time in trades, number of Longs, number of Shorts...basic stuff like that regardless if you use it or not to look deeper into your trade performance via whatever trade strategy you're using.

    It all starts with your trade strategy. If you really do not have one and have just been winging it sort'uv speak...trading will be the hardest thing you've ever done.

    wrbtrader
     
    Last edited: Jan 5, 2020
    #26     Jan 5, 2020
    aetrade and trader1974 like this.
  7. trader1974

    trader1974

    Very interesting links, Thanks Wrb
     
    #27     Jan 5, 2020
  8. fairvalue

    fairvalue


    Hello NihabaAshi,

    great to get "hands" on you and the only reason why I registered and posting right now. My approach is similar to the one mentioned here and I want to add flesh:

    First: Rules of the Trade Strategy

    - Entry Signal is a local High of an Inverted Hammer in an Uptrend in a 1D Timeframe.
    - A macro analysis in the 4h timeframe shows, that the Inverted Hammer consits of a dominat red candle, that is bigger than any other candle in the former uptrend leg before. Which makes it a legitimate setup.
    - Stop Loss equals the high of the Inverted Hammer candle.
    - the profit target equals the begin of the uptrend move
    - an entry is only performed, if price retraces (back) again to a level, where a 3 to 1 risk / reward ratio is possible. Other words: if prices dont move to an entry price, providing a risk / reward ratio of 3 to 1, than the trade is skipped.

    Trouble so far: a point were I can move the stop loss from the entry price to a break even level.

    My logic behind that setup is the following: In a trend a hammer or inverted hammer signals a possible retracement, where supply & demand changes to whatever reason. By analysing one timeframe lower (ie 4h) I can evaluate, if that counterimpulse is greater than any other bar in the trend leg. That indicates for me a higher probability to reach the price target.

    Looking forward and highly appreciating any interesting dicussion taking that profitable pattern thread a step forward =)

    Pic (please ignore lines with no description above)
     
    #28     Jan 6, 2020
  9. trader1974

    trader1974

    Yesterday it worked well, although not every day is trending, a lot of backtesting is necessary
    IMG_20200107_055313.jpg
     
    #29     Jan 6, 2020
  10. trader1974

    trader1974

    Wrb is right it all starts with backtesting if you want to stop losing money
     
    #30     Jan 7, 2020