Profitability Question and Example

Discussion in 'Trading' started by zerfetzen, May 10, 2008.

  1. trading afterhours is pretty tough, there is not enough liquidity to execute your orders at the prices that you wish. News events of course will allow you to get orders off, however, the prices may not be what the actual market price will be the next day. I would not reccomend trading after hours. If you are planning on trading currency and futures then it's all fair game.
     
    #21     May 10, 2008
  2. Thanks for the heads up on relationships and arbitrage. I don't know anything about it, and I will look into it.

    To me, the risk aspect of trading is quantitative like anything else, and should be modeled and optimized. I haven't done it yet, so this is fluff, but maybe something like you only invest 10% of your pool given your probability of profit is 66%, etc., etc.
     
    #22     May 10, 2008
  3. Ok, if after-hours is out, what's the next best route? Let's say I get Scottstrade (no idea good or bad), I'd be able to call with a cell phone and place an order while at work, right? Maybe that's a decent method, check the intraday (with its 10 minute lag or whatever) at Yahoo Finance, then call the broker? It's pretty obvious I'm very new, eh? :))
     
    #23     May 10, 2008
  4. yes, risk management is very quantitative, and for success in my opinion should be varied according to probabilities. For the statistical mind like yourself arbitrage trading offers endless possibitlities.
     
    #24     May 10, 2008
  5. there are pros and cons to each firm, from what i have heard from other retail traders, Interactive Brokers is very good. I traded with scottrade for several years, mostly longer term investments and it was fine for that purpose. You will pay hefty commissions when calling in orders, but if that's what you have to do, i guess you can bite the bullet.
     
    #25     May 10, 2008
  6. stop orders can execute for you while you are away, and can be set GTC (good till canceled) to get you into or out of positions. If you cannot monitor positions this would be a very good option.
     
    #26     May 10, 2008
  7. Many thanks for all of your good replies, and it was good to meet each of you. I will take the suggestions to heart and consider them carefully. Thanks again.
     
    #27     May 10, 2008
  8. AAA30

    AAA30

    Sounds like you have a good background for this type of systematic trading. If you are going to select a broker I would choose one that provides a beter interface for automatic orders. So, IB may not be the best choice for you unless you plan to create your own program to use their API, which is a good one.
    The link below is to a blog for a trader who does quite well. I believe he uses TD Ameritrade and their tools to enter orders while he is at work. It is not updated that much now but you might want to check it out. The archives is what you want to look at.

    http://pinoytrader.blogspot.com/index.html
     
    #28     May 10, 2008
  9. You touch on a very important point that people do not understand. There is a theoretical reason for doing with larger time, and indicating price (and not time) to exit and enter. Read a post I wrote about probabilities in my latest thread.

    I can expand on this. It is a critical point.
     
    #29     May 10, 2008
  10. 1. Do not trade stocks, trade indices.
    2. Given you are a statistician, you understand how to evaluate probs, and test hypothesis.
    3. What do you think are the chances for someone to determine the top price at a precise time using one minute closing price? (There are 360 minutes in a trading day (cash session).
    4. Same question as 3. but now do it for 3 days in four consecutive days.

    Why am I asking? Read my latest threads in which I posed (it is not the first time) the question. People who hanged in there are clueless to the nature of the question.

    Also, I am also the man who nailed 3. and 4. last week.
    Some backholders did not comprehend the possible significance of what I did, and insulted me for doing it even AFTER the market showed I am right.

    What are my chances from a statistical sense to answer 3. and 4. correctly?

    The links you asked for are:

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showt...37&perpage=6&highlight=935am ndx&pagenumber=1

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=126528&perpage=6&pagenumber=11

    http://www.elitetrader.com/vb/showthread.php?s=&threadid=126528&perpage=6&pagenumber=13
     
    #30     May 10, 2008