In the US before public builders listed and often got bundled into ETFS the housing hedge was lumber futures.
You mean like the Depression we had in the 1990s coming out of the last decline in housing prices ? Might as well dress up the bs theories full hog make it seem really dramatic. Don't let reality get in the way.
That's probably as close as it gets, lumber futures and other building materials. But the building boom will most likely continue in Canada, high or low property prices. Canada is horribly equipped to immigrate multiple dozen millions of newcomers in the next decades. I am now researching poorly equipped mortgage lenders that hold loans on their books instead of selling them off. Not much information on public domain in Canada. Also as mentioned, lots of builders are private or so small that their listed shares fly all over the map and who are easy takeover targets when shit hits the Fan.
I only know here in Toronto condo prices more than doubled in average price in the past decade due to a surge of immigrants. Mostly students that come from rich families in China. Chinatown use to be only canto-speakers now it's just "China" in the Town. (From my own observation.)
You'd be mistaken. Might as well pile in some more bs it's apparently what traders here do. The vast majority of home owners in Toronto are long term Canadian residents. Many baby boomers owned since the 1980s and 1990s. The "students that come from rich families in China" wouldn't even register basically a rounding error type number.
How can you make it as a trader if you think a "supply crunch" can exist but fair market value is 50%++ lower. Such a stupid idea. I'll post what I posted in 2010 and 2011. Toronto's housing market is going to remain strong until at least year 2050. This is not some wild guess it's based on what truly matters to a real estate market. The posters back then were equally sure some massive correction was coming shortly. Yes, there are new laws to limit housing speculation. They only affect a portion of the 3.4% of foreign ownership in Toronto. Yes, 3.4%. And building is accelerating to the point that it's ... oh, still nowhere near meeting new demand never mind putting a dent in the legacy situation.
Canada's economy doesn't rely on real estate values. Housing corrected around 1990 and what followed a few years later was an economic boom. We went from a nation with debt issues to one running a surplus for a few years. What is it about traders and their doomsday theories are you really so caught up in your book you can't see reality ?
The rise in condo prices were around the same time when chinese immigration exploded in Canada. But I have no interest to argue over something that isn't statistically proven. Like I said, it was just an observation/theory of mine. (Out of the blue.)
Fair market value is 50%++ lower? If you can articulate your argument in clear terms then we might be able to understand what you are trying to say. Fair market value of most homes in Canada are easily a 30%, most often 50% lower than currently assessed value. There is a difference between market prices and fair market values. Every econ student learns that in the second class. If you truly believe the current market prices are not blown out of all proportions then you must be yourself living in some sort of helium bubble. If you take a look at some of the homes in Vancouver that are currently priced at 2 million but otherwise are falling apart at their seams and still believe they are fairly valued then that's on you. Most every economist would strongly disagree with you. When a median income cannot even afford to pay the property tax on a median priced home in Vancouver then there is something seriously wrong with this market. I get you see Canada's property assets and stocks all fairly valued and believe they go even further to the moon. Not sure what you base those beliefs on but again most every professional in this space strongly disagrees with you. Interestingly you can't name a single plausible argument that would support your bizarre views
Should I name you the percent of GDP in Canada that is made up of activity in the property market and resource extraction? Do you actually know anything about your own country or you just talk for the sake of disagreeing with others? Another hard cold statistic for you to enjoy is the fact that the growth in government debt, corporate debt, and household debt in Canada is the absolute highest in the entire developed world. Absolute debt levels per capita are equally highly worry some. Are you seriously arguing that Canada's economy is not built on a huge debt pile that can at some point collapse like dominos?