===================== Well this past 12 months, and year to date has been a good bear trending market-VERY important since you said ''directional.'' Stock index futires as some have hinted don't [do not] trend very well, but forget about all the fib levels, [for now]which i edited out of your post. ======================================== BUt since you said ''directional,'' look at 1 share of SPY & 200 day moving average,12 month chart ,sell below 200 day moving average , buy to cover /close above 200dma , that's profitable past year. [Not original with me, William O Neill, & trader Vic/wall street master. ,likes 200dma] But if you are not already short as of friday i would not enter monday; even though all the 200 day, 50 day, 5 day trends are down... Also since 1 years data may mean something ,1 days data doesnt mean much,;SPY is an average, like me starting you are doing far worse than average/trading to frequently. College trader ,wish i had started @ bottom; but i started trading too big [position]. But correctly identified the uptrend in juniper networks[JNPR] ,long entry @ about $200 in 2000, just in time for the bear market.Didn't know a bear from a bull trend, or usefulness of 200dma......................................
most traders blow out within the 1st year,so blow out 3 paper accts first, First ,learn to chart,draw trendlines,watch how the market reacts,see how well you are at catching a ride on a trend,a reversal,a breakout (breakthru a trendline),trend days(mrket move big in 1 direction for biggest par t of a day), Learn to not trade unless u see a setup,this is very important,should be #1 rule. When u are in a trade ,learn good exits,how to take a loss,how to accept loss ,it's as normal to trading as sawdust is to a carpenter,part of the job,nothing bad about losses,just not taking them is bad. Learn how to let a winner ride and increase your returns. All of these must be mastered before the coach (you) puts you in the game. You can't learn how to trade without playing with real money,but all of these skills can be partially attaned thru paper trading,without knowledge of these skills,you are sure to lose at trading. Personally i found learning to chart the market profile by hand in the spu's the most helpful at silently explaining how the market moves to a spot and where it stops and reverses. When doing it by hand you learn by osmossis,the picture at the end of the day has only 4 - 6 possibilitys,halfway thru the day u can see the next 2 hours and sometimes the close. You can do this at the end of the day by lookiing at a 30 minute bar chart and drawing the picture yourself on graph paper.
Not to be too negative, but really you should look to get a career 1st or start a business and trade later when you have enough capital. You can invest/trade in stocks over a long time frame while you are working. Right now we are in a bear market, but many like Buffet are seeing great stocks to invest in for the long term. The reason that very few people make money is that they don't have the balls to to go against the crowd and can take the pressure of being in a draw down without finally selling out at the bottom. There are many stocks right now that if you buy them should give you a 20% return in 1 year without effort. This means you are making 20% without spending 8 hours per day watching the market. Many of those traders that are making $ 20,000 to $ 100,000 in a single day, have $ millions. No one with a $ 5,000 account is going to make that much money unless they win a slot jackpot in Las Vegas.
http://www.amazon.com/Mind-over-Mar...=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1226776367&sr=1-1 A classic http://www.cbot.com/cbot/pub/page/0,3181,1184,00.html CBOT is the home of MP. The handbook pdf is some of the original material. Good stuff but dated. I use MP, not so much in the way it is presented above but as fractals in a day time frame using volume profiles instead of the traditional method. Great for seeing support and resistance levels. Most poo-poo MP but I find it useful.
achilles, i warmed up a post in "can market profile be self taught" ,it's way to simple to use,definitely stick it in your tool box
www.charthub.com/images/2008/11/14/Profile_Main notice the size of nip on 10/23 and 11/6 and how they provided supp and res for 11/14 market profile, edit if we rally there is another large nip at 937, this system works on any index
I said this before, I'll say it again. My edge lies in watching DEPTH OF MARKET for STOCKS. 1) Order book 2) Chart 3) Time and sales 4) Futures in that order of importance.
Could you share with us as to what kind of stragies these traders use (scalping, pair trading, gainers/losers or relative strength, etc.)? Thanks.