MON - 11-22-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) MID-DAY UPDATE - After retracing past 1193 price works its way down to 1180 target as expected (1182.50 intra-day low) offering nice E=MC2 sell setups along the way... Trend day conditions in place. Look for trend day pullback (1188-1190 area) to enter for a move to new intra-day lows. Monitor for continuing trend day conditions, especially if 1180 area is reached.
MON - 11-22-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) 1:30 UPDATE - A set up to enter short never developed in the 1190-1188 deep pullback area, and the intra-day bias is now up. Look to trade with long bias for rest of session in line with standard volume confirmation and uptrend intra-day structure.
MON - 11-22-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) SUMMARY - After an intra-day trend reversal up, price offered some nice long trades and moved higher back into the 1206-1193 bracket. Look for a push to 1206 with intra-day high at 1197.50 as first target today. Going forward, monitor 1200 resistance area as price now works to upper end of consolidation. Uptrend in place as long as 1193 support holds on a pullback.
TUES - 11-23-2010 - (OVERNIGHT - OPEN) MACRO - This week starts with focus on the 1200-1050 daily bracket. A breakout above this bracket appears to have been rejected, and this will be confirmed if 1206 resistance holds, and a new swing low below 1171 takes place. This could mean an eventual move down to bracket lows near 1050 with 1120 first major pullback to swing support. ES price is now forming 3 days of overlapping price action inside 1200-1185 which means an eventual breakout of this area will be powerful to determine the next move in the market. The E=MC2 approach doesn't predict. It goes with unfolding flow with evolving expectations to place trade set ups in big picture context. OPEN - Overnight action moves down to low of 1200-1185 range...Watch for volume lead fade or continuation, and then monitor the gap first move-first retrace to see how price reacts to the 1200-1185 range.
TUES - 11-23-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1) GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - ES gaps lower below 1200-1185 range, makes a brief first move up to 1185 resistance, and then continues lower to maintain a down mechanical bias from the open throughout the first hour. Once tight three day 1200-1185 range broke lower at 1185 look for 1171 daily lows to be tested with first support in 1175 area. Also, trend day down conditions are in place to keep bias down until proven otherwise. To start this will entail 1183 pullback to swing resistance area holding, and then seeing what develops as the lows at 1177 (intra-day), 1175 (first support), and 1171 (daily support) are tested.
TUES - 11-23-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) SUMMARY - In line with early trend day conditions price found pullback to swing resistance near 1183, and then worked to new intra-day lows and down to the 1175 area. The two hour rally that developed from 10:30-12:30off 1175 with strong volume was in conflict trend down conditions and signaled a the trading/chop range that developed with a down bias. The only good E=MC2 trade opportunities that developed from noon on were a couple scalp pullback with volume confirmation short trades at 13:00 and 13:15. Otherwise the best trading was early on this day. The market is still poised to test 1171 lows as long as todays high near 1185 holds. Happy Thanksgiving to everyone. I'll be out of town and see where the market is when I return.
MON - 11-29-2010 (OVERNIGHT - OPEN) MACRO - On the daily charts, price will either break above 1200, and this should mean price was rejected moving back into the daily 1200-1050 bracket and is heading much higher, or it will swing below 1171 and start the move 1120. The short term consolidation areas to monitor are 1200-1185, and 1185-1175. OPEN - Price in a mechanical downtrend at open near 1185 lows. If short trades develops first (watch price + volume), and if 1185 resistance holds during day session part 1, look for a move to 1175. If long trades setup first, then price should work its way to 1192 area to start on the way to 1200. The E=MC2 approach doesn't predict. It goes with unfolding flow with evolving expectations to place trade set ups in big picture context.
MON - 11-29-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 1) GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - ES gapped slightly lower, held 1185, and moved down to 1175 as expected, and probed the major support area between 1175-1171. As long as 1180-1178 resistance area holds bias stays down, and we will see if 1171 can break to the downside. If not, and/or if 1180-1178 is taken out to upside then 1185-1175 consolidation low is holding and expect price to work back to 1185. If 1185 is taken out, then 1194, and then 1200.
MON - 11-29-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) 10:30 UPDATE - Price moves up to 1180-1178 resistance and this is a classic example of how to use the big picture first, mechanics second. This deep pullback area is not C3 sell because we have major 1175 area support below. However it's not a new C1 buy because price is up against 1180 resistance. Therefore, expect chop to develop between 1180-1175 for a period of time, and look to trade out of chop when the trading trend better aligns later in the session.
MON - 11-29-2010 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) SUMMARY - Price formed classic intra-day chop between 1180-1175 which meant to look for a powerful breakout. There were a few minor trade opportunities early in chop (price volume pullbacks after highs and lows were tested -10:39 sell, 11:04 buy), but later on in the session (13:30) after time had gone by and the trading trend was holding in a buy mode, a powerful upside breakout developed to 1185 as expected, and then into the 1200-1185 bracket, so we now expect price to work back up to 1200 as long as the 1185 area holds