FRI - 1-07-2011 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) 12:30- After a deeper pullback to 1265.50 around 11:00 developed, an excellent C2 sell took price to new intra-day lows and the 1260 area as expected. A nice price/volume/pivot countertrend buy trade then developed @1261.25 for gains back to the big picture pullback area near 1264. At this point, all big picture levels have been reached, there have been many nice trades, and there is no sense to look for more trades. Structure wise, the mechanical trend can turn up (not there yet) but there is 1266 resistance in the way. The move to major support has already taken place with a nice bounce so the odds don't favor new lows. Finally, if swing structure first moves lower and then to new highs (turning structure bias up later), this will take some time to develop with time running out in the trading session, but perhaps this scenario can set up a long trade opportunity near the end of the session as price works its way back up to the 1273-1260 highs. Odds are strong that the best trades today have already occurred.
MON - 01-10-2011 (OVERNIGHT-OPEN) MACRO â The ES has broken out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. After pausing inside 1258-1250 consolidation, price gapped higher and met some responsive selling, and now we are monitoring the 1273-1260 bracket. OVERNIGHT/OPEN - Overnight , price moved lower to the bottom of 1273 -1260 bracket to create a down bias with potential conflict to start the trading session. Strong support at the 1260 area last week seemed to suggest price was moving back to the top of 1273-1260. In the bigger picture, price seems to be pausing and overlapping inside 1273-1260 as part of a continued uptrend. Therefore a gap down price/volume/pivot fade scenario could be great price location to see if price can test overnight highs near 1267 and then beyond. If price cant move higher early, then look to go with mehchanical down trend and be cautious in terms of 1260 holding. Only if 1260 breaks do we head to 1250 with 1255 first support. As always we will have a more clear idea of what price is trying to do to start the week relative to the way day session part 1 price action unfolds.
TUES - 01-11-2011 (OVERNIGHT-OPEN) MACRO â The ES has broken out of the 1200-1050 bracket on the way to the 1280 area. After pausing inside 1258-1250 consolidation, price gapped higher and met some responsive selling, and now we are monitoring the 1273-1260 bracket. OVERNIGHT/OPEN - Overnight , price continued the up move off the 1273-1260 lows all the way up to 1273, so we monitor to see if price can breakout above 1273 in line with the expected result of 7 days worth of daily overlapping price action Mechanical uptrend will remain up this morning as long as 1268 holds in case chop develops up near 1273 resistance to start the trading session
TUES - 01-01-2011 - (DAY SESSION PART 1) GAP/FIRST MOVE/FIRST RETRACE - Gap up continuation entry @8:31 (1271.50) provided gains when price moved above overnight highs (1272.50) as price first tested 1273 resistance. The following C1 buy that developed @8:36 should be avoided after key resistance had been reached/tested (i.e. this setup is not true momentum) A C2 buy developed @ 8:42 (1271.50) which provided a small loss, followed by a price/volume/pivot sell @847 (1270.00) which provided gains as price made its first move of the day lower to test the expected 1268 pullback/support area which was also a mechanical C3 pullback area @9:00. A C3 pullback needs to be a normal deep pullback in a trend, or a pullback that is expected to retest highs/lows based on the big picture. In this case the intra-day high is key big picture resistance and we don't yet know what intra-day structure is forming, so there is no trade setup to consider until a day session one intra-day bias is confirmed up or down. By 9:30, the first move lower made a failure swing to new lows, so this confirms C3 buy structure to start the trading session with a C3 buy @9:27 (1270.50) for an expected move to test new intra-day highs (1273). The trend of the day starts up until intra-day lows are taken out(1268 area), with an expected move to test key resistance to see if a big picture breakout higher can develop.
TUES - 1-11-2011 - (DAY SESSION PART 2) SUMMARY - Price worked its way to new highs above 1273 by 10:10 to provide gains on the day session one C3 long trade and then trading became tricky when no follow through developed past this key resistance area. Two long trades developed for small losses (@10:23 In1272.75/ Out 1272.00) (@11:24 In 1272.75/Out 1272.25), and then price broke sharply straight down to 1268 to turn the trend down and solidify 1273 resistance. A pullback/short entry @12:40 (1270) provided gains to new intra-day lows. Price then rallied sharply from new lows @1266 offering no further sell trade opportunities, and the only setup that developed from here was an aggressive buy @14:45 (1270.25-breakeven results) as an aggressive price/volume/pivot play to see if the intra-day trend would turn up past 1271 as price moved into the close.