The trade setup creates a target level. The support level I mentioned is just another area the market needs to clear through to get to the target level. I did not say it was a significant support level, if it was such an important area, I would just cover at that area instead.
I'll repeat...backtest to determine how ofte This is not complicated and I'm lost for words why you seem so confused. 1) Backtest your trade management rules. If you have not trade management rules and you don't have a valid reason for your profit targets...stop trading until you have rules for profits/exits instead of trying to wing it. 2) To say you have a profit target is also to say you have a reason why you think it will drop from 1917 to 1908. You should be monitoring that reason to see if the reasons is still there when it reaches the mid - level. 3) You call something a mid - level...trail your trade if mid - level is reach. How far to trail between 1908 and 1917 ? That's where your backtest and recent trading results will help you. 4) If you're asking these types of questions about S&P 500 Emini ES futures...you shouldn't be trading it. It is not a trading instrument for newbie traders and it is not a trading instrument to be learning how to trade. Its a trading instrument for professional traders and veteran traders. The recent volatility environment for the Emini futures involving that strange sudden chop in the intraday trading session that repeats multiple times every trading day since August...its tough even on veteran traders. Seriously, if you have not done any backtesting such as comparing your backtest results of your trade method on other futures trading instruments versus your backtest results on the Emini ES futures to determine if Emini ES is the proper trading instrument for you and/or you have not done any backtesting on your trade management... You're already at a great disadvantage in trading Emini ES futures.
Hahaha, yeah I usually have a set limit target level and also analyzing constantly to see whether market will hit it or change course. I havent tried praying however. My question was if you have a target level based on a trade setup, but in between your entry and target there are obstacles as in support/resistance, when trading 1 contract how do you manage your trade? With size, you can reduce risk at the first obstacle.
lol oh so your that guy. Sometimes it's actually harder to play against opponents who do that sort of thing, ya never know what the hell to expect from them on any hand and you wonder if they have ever even played. Sometimes they get lucky as hell ( in the short term) but they won't be around over longer periods of time playing like that. Akin to a newbie making a killing his first month in futures, then busting later on.
Well I have the capital but I want to first be very consistent in trading 1 lot before I move to 2.... and then eventually 3. My main problem I realized is that I did not read what the average profit was for a ES trader in a week. I would be greedy and going for what a successful ES trader(1 lot) makes in a week every day and to hold onto my winners(for the jugular) without a trailing stop. I believe if I really limit my trades and am happy enough with 8-10 points on ES a day instead of 20, I can improve a lot from here. Right....I mean instead of trading ES I could switch back to SPY and then have the trade management that I want to do with ES, but I am just wondering how all the traders dealt with this dilemma of only having one contract to manage. P.S. I've never used a trailing stop, just manually adjust stops =p
if you have a target, and your target gets hit, then what? Just do it all over again? Until when? Until it finally never gets hit and you get stopped out? Or blown out? That doesn't sound like much of a plan to me. Man I'm the best damn trader that ever lived. Give me a stop and a target and I can hit my target almost every time. I'm what you call a sharpshooter. Very high hit rate. It's all been backtested.
I'm always the first one to leave the table in those $20 tournaments I play in. I use to play at a casino in New Mexico and if there was not a game I could just sit at the table and they would call all the locals and let them know I was there and in 15 minutes we would have a full table.
Thanks wrbtrader, backtesting is something I need to really work on. Just gonna be straight up and lay it out that I have not done any backtesting whatsoever. I do keep a trade log and do a video journal almost everyday however in reviewing trades/mistakes. In regards to #2, I am constantly analyzing if my trade still has valid reasons for it to work or if there is a sudden change of wind. However you also mentioned the strange sudden chop on intraday like from 11:38AM-12:39PM PT on 9/23/2015. Even in Michael Douglas's book, you never really know what the market can do. That's why I have a certain methodology but never certain on what the outcome will be, but I can manage my risk. #3 really helps. I will definitely have to read up on back-testing to make use of this, thank you.
R:R of 1 to 4, if target gets hit I get out, and wait patiently again for another high probability setup. So with market bounce intraday today i pretty much covered my VXX calls right at the top of VXX/bottom of ES, I can spot key areas. How do I backtest how high the markets will bounce after identifying a key reversal area? Imo you simply can't until the market gives you signals of where it wants to take it.
As far as day trading....If you are risking 12 points what is your profit goal? 24 points ? Risking 12 points on an ES trade seems like a lot to me. During that 1-2 week period where there were 60 points+ daily ranges then maybe risk that knowing you could capture 24 points on your winners. But even that seems very aggressive. Now that things have slowed down a bit risking 12 points seems way too much. Yes there were 12+ point moves in 5 min a few weeks ago, but I wouldn't get hung up on that as there was a huge increase in volatility for a few days.