Reference to standard deviation? Although it should be 68% within one SD either way...based on a Gaussion distribution

if u bet 100 times, u have 66 winners, 33 losers. On average for each winner u win 2 while u lose 1 per loser.

you create a probability distribution using the instruments volatlilty and current price. the use prob density function. or quick way is to look at the delta

Easy. All you have to do is misuse mathematics by predicting the behavior of nonexistent prices in the nonexistent future. Statistics describes the past. What might happen in the future is an opinion.