Probability Through the Lens of Coin Flipping

Discussion in 'Strategy Building' started by marketsurfer, Mar 23, 2017.

  1. That may depend on the force of the flipper! LOL the distance the coin travels through the air. The thumb flipping action could may it flip slow or fast and the distance traveled while flipping would involve the amount of flips..lots of variables. Now if a machine could exactly duplicate, in both coins, the amount of flips and distance traveled in the flips then it would not take as many flips.

    The same problem occurs in trading. No two days are exact in the force applied on the markets. Even two trends differ from each other. It is an ocean of uncertainty. But i know which coin I want. The one that gives me the slight edge 60%. If the institutions are the thumbs doing the flipping ........well........ the thing about it........ even the institutions get it wrong.
     
    Last edited: Mar 24, 2017
    #11     Mar 24, 2017
  2. Brilliant article. This should be compulsory reading for anyone want to test or develop a trading strategy
     
    #12     Mar 24, 2017
    marketsurfer likes this.
  3. I don't run a money management business.

    surf
     
    #13     Mar 24, 2017
  4. MKTrader

    MKTrader

    No, it says to evaluate money managers just like you would a trading system. In both cases, you tend to get "fooled by randomness" more often than not.
     
    #14     Mar 24, 2017
    marketsurfer likes this.
  5. 225.
     
    #15     Mar 25, 2017
  6. lovethetrade

    lovethetrade Guest

    What's the moral of the story?
     
    #16     Mar 28, 2017