I would say 100%. Just like all good ponzi schemes, the current ponzi, I mean stock market, will eventually be exposed.
100% re-visiting the March lows will be 'max pain' scenario for the MAJORITY of market participants (and politicians).
Less than 30%, in this cycle. The financial panic is over, and the cause of it, the housing market, is finally stabilizing at a much lower price level. Also, Paulson is out. Geithner is mediocre, but Paulson was willfully either evil or remarkably stupid. Mere mediocrity being the norm for government bureaucrats, things should be steady again from here on out.
WOW! THIS POLL IS INCREDIBLY BEARISH. Buy a bear spread and make tons if you really think the chances are fat talled...
I used to think the chance will be as small as Goldman Sachs going bankruptcy, now I think the chance is much greater.