Probability of expiration for an iron condor

True. Risk management is your key to success.

A 30% probability of FINISHING ITM does NOT mean a 60% of moving ITM at some point.

Others can provide a way to calculate the probability of 'touching' the strike. I believe TOS offers that calculation to its clients.

Mark

 

Odds to touch / odds to close = 1.5

 

I came up with the 60% from TOS.

 

it should be higher that 60%, because just the prob to touch one of the strikes is 60%

 

There are analytical formulas to make this type of calculations. I don't know this software and if they have a correct implementation. Check out the online calculator here

http://www.hoadley.net/options/barrierprobs.aspx?

it gives accurate theoretical answers.

 

Isn't it extremely unlikely that the underlying would touch both strike prices?

 

After touching one strike, it takes an extra large move to reverse and touch the other.

But, it's a real risk. Here's advice I follow when trading iron condors: If I decide to adjust one side of an iron condor to reduce risk, I almost always buy back the winning side because the price is relatively cheap and there is little to be gained from holding.

Most traders fail to take out this insurance policy, and they win most of the time. But, that occasional loss can be very costly.

Mark