Probability of a stock to follow a specific pathway

Discussion in 'Options' started by MrAgi1, Jun 11, 2021.

  1. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    @destriero
    Yes of course no chance of this getting traded. Let's say an intellectual exercise for now.
     
    #51     Jun 12, 2021
  2. taowave

    taowave

    Seems almost guaranteed of geting knocked out for a 9.99 percent max return
     
    #52     Jun 12, 2021
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  3. destriero

    destriero

    Alright. I assumed that I was dealing with a sane, coherent individual. Apples grow from trees; oranges grow from trees; apples = oranges.
     
    #53     Jun 12, 2021
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  4. Tradex

    Tradex

    Same here, I use Monte-Carlo simulations all the time, but mainly to estimate the risk of ruin of various trading systems, mine included.
    Thanks for your input James.
     
    #54     Jun 12, 2021
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  5. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I think you would really benefit from reading some
    Finance fx books.

    I mean this genuinely.

    the snide remark about the triangular arbitrage should have resonated with you about a flaw of your trading strategy which could be causing you to lose money or lower your earning potential.
     
    #55     Jun 12, 2021
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  6. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    @taowave
    Yes, It is sort of a hedge trade if certain rare conditions occur, not the main trade. It is just theory, I was just thinking of complex new ideas and how they could be traded. Nothing serious.

    You mean a 9.99 percent max return?
     
    #56     Jun 12, 2021
  7. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    you can’t even trade this structure can you?
     
    #57     Jun 12, 2021
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  8. Tradex

    Tradex

    Listen sonny boy, I have read over 400 trading books during the last 20 years, and I continue to read new ones every month (not to mention my subscriptions to trading magazines and newspapers such as Stocks and Commodities, Futures, Investor's business daily, Barron's, etc...), so enough with the condescending attitude, alright?
     
    #58     Jun 12, 2021
    MrAgi1 likes this.
  9. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    I don't think it is out there to be traded, but you never know. I just made it up to get an estimate of the probability of something that complex happening.
     
    #59     Jun 12, 2021
    Tradex likes this.
  10. destriero

    destriero

    He never figured out that he had zero exposure to the original pair.
     
    #60     Jun 12, 2021
    MrAgi1 likes this.