Probability of a stock to follow a specific pathway

Discussion in 'Options' started by MrAgi1, Jun 11, 2021.

  1. destriero

    destriero


    OK, the utility of pricing static vols to the structure is a thing, but again, the thing would be 5x95 mkt.
     
    #41     Jun 12, 2021
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  2. JamesJ

    JamesJ

    Agree, market would be wide on these...
    And a nightmare to hedge...
     
    #42     Jun 12, 2021
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  3. destriero

    destriero

    I mean that as a touch the intraday breach would kill the no touch condition. It would pay to the seller.
     
    #43     Jun 12, 2021
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  4. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    You’re right. The complexity is to much. @destriero
     
    #44     Jun 12, 2021
  5. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    @destriero the point is, because of complexity of the pathway, buying it as single option, I could have a return over 10x my risk: now this can be a good hedge for my other trade. If I do it on binary.com my combined odds drop drastically to maybe even a 1:1 risk to reward because I need to buy 4 separate trades and that does not serve my specific hedging purpose. It’s hard to explain but your point is sensible tho.
     
    #45     Jun 12, 2021
  6. destriero

    destriero


    The structure that I outlined is optimal as the 80-NT (2nd condition) would be far cheaper (an input) than if packaged in the original structured prod. as shares have dropped and vol has risen. This assumes that this is a fairly long tenor (not a few days to exp.)
     
    #46     Jun 12, 2021
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  7. destriero

    destriero

    Your 10x figure is fantasy. You're stating that structured as a delimited payoff (0-100) you're buying this for 10? C'mon man.

    Equity exotics are a small fraction of what's traded as TRS. As an intellectual exercise it's cool, but it's not practical. The edge loss would make the independent structures look cheap. You've got a better chance of starting forward for the Knicks then getting this traded.
     
    #47     Jun 12, 2021
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  8. destriero

    destriero

    Mine has the edge, regardless of vols, as touching 90 would trigger the purchase of the 80-NT which would be cheaper (due to TP/moneyness) ignoring time.
     
    #48     Jun 12, 2021
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  9. taowave

    taowave

    Am I correct that this structure trades dirt cheap??

     
    #49     Jun 12, 2021
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  10. MrAgi1

    MrAgi1

    @taowave
    It should be mathematically because the probability of such an event occurring is quite small. And small probability means cheap premiums paid. However, there are other problems such as liquidity which increases cost. I guess you already know about all this.
     
    #50     Jun 12, 2021