Probability of a stock to follow a specific pathway

Discussion in 'Options' started by MrAgi1, Jun 11, 2021.

  1. taowave

    taowave

    Judging by the responces in this thread,Good luck finding an offer


     
    #31     Jun 12, 2021
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  2. taowave

    taowave

    What's the HV of the stock??

    Present a historical price return distribution of the stock,and pray the past is an indicator of the future

    Or simply hire a quant well versed in Tradex-physics

     
    Last edited: Jun 12, 2021
    #32     Jun 12, 2021
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  3. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    suppose it’s 200bc. How do you explain an apple falling from a tree.

     
    #33     Jun 12, 2021
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  4. taowave

    taowave

    Lol.... Without bouncing off the ground back to the top branch

     
    #34     Jun 12, 2021
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  5. Tradex

    Tradex

    In other words you are using brute force to predict the possible behavior of a semi-random event (the up and down movements of a stock).

    Have you tried a similar approach in the past?
     
    #35     Jun 12, 2021
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  6. newwurldmn

    newwurldmn

    I would use a binomial or trinomial tree with local vols implied by the surface and run montecarlo on that.
     
    #36     Jun 12, 2021
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  7. destriero

    destriero


    There are people on this board would could price it for you, but you're known, so as a buyer of the structure you're fucked bc the mkt would be skewed against you.

    There is no utility in pricing it the way you're asking. The complexity would make the market stupid wide.

    You buy a $90 touch.

    You buy a $110 no touch (sell a touch).

    **** Barrier is touched ****

    You buy an $80 no touch (sell a touch).
     
    #37     Jun 12, 2021
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  8. JamesJ

    JamesJ

    Did my BSc thesis in applied mathematics on something like that.
    Up/Downs are random and not iid.

    With computational power cheap and fast, brute force looks fine to me, especially given the complexity with possible intraday barrier breaks, for which one imho has to interpolate or use smaller time steps than daily with more sophisticated distributions (ie. a 5min change in first half hour will be more than around noon).
     
    #38     Jun 12, 2021
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  9. destriero

    destriero

    And you can do this Monday on binary.com. You're $100MM away from having an ISDA or $10MM from trading on a PB's ISDA, so what exactly is the point?
     
    #39     Jun 12, 2021
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  10. destriero

    destriero


    Intraday barrier breaks would kill it. These are PD exotics.
     
    #40     Jun 12, 2021
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