If this tool does nothing else than to get people to think about maximizing payoff (payoff = probability*(reward/risk)) instead of maximizing probability alone, then I would say it is definitely a good feature IB had introduced.
Why not integrate all the option tools you currently have, i,e option strategy lab (which is better that the risk navigator but lacks the functionality), risk navigator, probability lab for options & options trader. Or better still, get rid of the outdated risk navigator and use the option strategy lab as the basis for a new options trading tool.
You quote the spread or combo in TWS and then right click to what-if the position. I'll admit that the new PL function is pointless for me. A newb can slice an ATM combo for area under the curve. A manipulative with touch prob would be a bit more useful, but also not necessary. I agree that I'd rather see a robust risknav with a beta-weighted SPX delta prominently displayed. I trade a family portfolio exceeding $22MM (fu haters) at IB and have very few complaints.
i recommend IB spend time to finish its chart. the current chart tool is childish. I have experience in java programming, i know it is not hard to write a chart tool. i do not know why IB is so incompetent in this regard.
TWS beta 943, which was out for few days, now have small up/down arrows next to custom forward price and volatility, clicking on which you can provide fine adjustments to the overall forward price or volatility. Also, you can grab+drag the whole PD curve left and right (this will adjust your price on larger scale) and up/down (will adjust volatility). There are few more changes related to Probability Lab, see full list in TWS beta notes here https://individuals.interactivebrokers.com/en/software/releaseNotes/Betanotes2.php.
Thank you for this update, this is exactly what I was hoping for. Being able to drag the PD curve left/right is a major boost to productivity.
Could be a fantastic trading platform for quantitative probability traders. Since the underlying probability distributions contain very significant skewness and kurtosis the user must be able to enter the skewness and kurtosis of his/her probability distribution. Otherwise the payoff can not be computed quantitatively. It would also be helpful to know how the probability trader calculates the probability distribution since there can be differences between constrained and unconstrained methods. It would also be helpful to have a programming interface. Is this in the works? Ron Blanken Sci2Tech Inc