Probability Improvement Question

Discussion in 'Strategy Development' started by bcavender, Jan 12, 2004.

  1. I went back over my (NYSE Swing) trades for the last couple of years printing out each chart...entries/exits/stops/etc to look for clues that I could use to improve my percentages with. (I have averaged 45% to as high as 65% successful trades per month. Money management has kept me in the game and moving ahead.

    One thing jumped out at me when I was looking over the good and the bad. The best profits occured (naturally) on stocks where the spectrum of Investors & Specialists moved things on a pretty even keel...trending/low freq oscillating/etc. Some of the better winners were lesser known stocks just plodding along over and over and over. Decent moves without a lot of surprises.

    My epiphany was that I had only been thinking about one side of the trading coin. I spent a fair amount of time on my system and money mgmt, but the stocks that I put into it were pretty much just stocks that I (randomly) became familiar with over the years.

    I nixed a number of stocks from future consideration after laying the marked up charts side by side. Garbage In...Garbage Out.

    My current thought is that I may have ignored a good avenue for potential improvement in my trading stats. I realize that the temperment of a stock can change drastically in short order and certainly I will always be open to surprises, but even a 10% shift in the 45-65% range would be well worth the additional analysis.

    My question: I've not seen this concept written up in Stock&Comm/SFO etc...It seems pretty much like an untouched area for improvement for me.

    Anyone care to offer comments/suggestions on the idea?