Hard to help someone that knows everything. This is the same argument that naked put seller have that say it is free money. Then, 2 years later, they are broke.
Thank you for your effort, maybe a professional mathematician or a quant knows the right answer to this nasty but IMO very important problem.
I'm using lognormal distribution ( https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Log-normal_distribution ). But the problem or the solution is somewhere else.
My latest calculation model gives even 99.9% for simulation nRuns >= 100,000. Hmm. can it be true? Logic says it's a very unrealistic result, but then I can't find a bug in the algorithm... A really paradoxical situation...
Found the bug! Now the choices are 88, 66, 53 : one of them must be the correct one. And each has a justification... The journey to The Final Frontier continues...
I find it hard to tell if you are a person with a very high IQ but no real understanding of market structure and risk/return or just someone in the alpha quadrant on LSD that likes to read and believe everything they read. If you are here to learn, listen to the responses of those that take the time to do that. We might not have your level of IQ but we have knowledge and experience you do not and will not have until you have traded and make mistakes like us all over time.
Are you saying you know the correct answer to the question in this topic? Which one is it? I wonder why you always generalize, instead of being concrete, ie. being exact. To be honest, I doubt you know the answer to the question in the topic; your motives are nefarious: always trying to make me publicly down. Seems you are following an agenda or orders... You think you are something better b/c you are a senior and veteran in the markets, and a sponsor here, and me "just" a user who needs to obey your sicko world-view of slavery... Nope! I'm a free man and don't need to obey you or any such sicko in the World. I'm following the site rules. If you think such sponsors like you should have the right to ban users then you can try to add it to the site rules, so that then everybody knows that one has to obey the sponsors, even sickos. I hate group-thinking, and am not interested to join a sicko group to get any help. So, forget about you speaking for a group; speak just for yourself as an individual. Since you have no respect for me, then don't expect any respect from me from now on. If you continue your observed negative behaviour against me, then I'll have to block you, since you steal my time with your such off-topic postings in my such important threads.
Bud, check your ego at the door.. Robert's an OG whom is very supportive and generally gives high quality answers to queries - to discount his experience and perspective doesn't make you wise other than in your own mind. The above is distinct from critical independent thinking or being a "free man."
He has never been any help, always just publicly criticizes my work, tells the audience I would have no experience etc. blah blah. All off-topic BS arguments, subtle personal attacks to make me down in front of the readership. He surely has an agenda to harm me in the public. I don't need any help from such a dishonest and disrespectful person. Case closed. Back to the topic, please.