Probability and Trading

Discussion in 'Technical Analysis' started by sridhga, May 11, 2022.

  1. Nonlinear regression analysis solves the problem you are describing. What sort of tools that fall under the category of "chaos theory" have you used with market data?
     
    #41     May 12, 2022
    sridhga likes this.
  2. SunTrader

    SunTrader

    Do you know what chaos theory is, especially as to how it relates to the markets?
     
    #42     May 12, 2022
    sridhga likes this.
  3. This is one of the weirder threads I've ever seen on here and that obviously is saying something.
     
    #43     May 12, 2022
    sridhga likes this.
  4. sridhga

    sridhga


    I have not used it. I may not need it. My current trading systems are profitable.
    I made a reference to chaos theory to explain why we depend on probability distributions and draw a trend line as well as trend channel line.
     
    #44     May 12, 2022
  5. Is your current strategy quantitative or do you use something like TOS or TWS and trade while looking at charts?
     
    #45     May 12, 2022
    sridhga likes this.
  6. sridhga

    sridhga


    I studied it during my master's course in Mathematics. That was 25 years ago. I do keep a track of the progress in the field. Although scientists did develop models for stock markets and there have been research papers on the same, I do not think any tradeable models/tools have evolved out of them so far. That is why, in my earlier post, I was referring to progress in Artificial Intelligence. Chaos computing with AI may provide answers in the future.
     
    #46     May 12, 2022
  7. sridhga

    sridhga


    I use price action.
     
    #47     May 12, 2022
  8. sridhga

    sridhga


    Nice try at passing comments.
     
    #48     May 12, 2022
  9. deaddog

    deaddog

    That's an interesting analogy
    How do you relate logging to trading?
    It's what I did before I traded and I'm having trouble seeing any similarities.
     
    #49     May 12, 2022
    murray t turtle likes this.
  10. Referring to
    https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Feller's_coin-tossing_constants

    In the example given, If we toss a fair coin ten times then the exact probability that no pair of heads come up in succession (i.e. n = 10 and k = 2) is p(10,2) = 0.1406263...

    Does this mean in 10 tosses, the probability of a pair of heads or tails coming out in succession= 1-0.14 ?

    What is this probability formula for X tosses in general?
     
    Last edited: May 13, 2022
    #50     May 13, 2022