No, that's what this whole thread is about. Just taking your best shot is at best a 50/50 proposition at best. Smallfil is correct about positive expectancy, but that entails detailed back testing, possibly for years, before trading. Of course there are whole threads and web articles that go into detail about the whole back testing paradigm being bullshit. After years of trying, I'm still only breakeven, and have not found a positive expectancy methodology that fits my demeanor. I've tried various trend following methods, but always manage to give back the gains of a good trend when price action enters a whipsaw phase. I now use an extreme value methodology, but still have yet to "make it."