True that I don't feel comfortable being the one I am. But I don't want your place. Just want to grow up. Then why not play the musical chair together, But I won't play till I can bring my own. If it's not organical, It won't work. Can't steal your place like that. Got to build my own chair.
But the point is easy. You said "always trade within the given (preset / current) context" And "Probability is always 50/50". However Context is useless if the Probability is always 50/50. As it's useless to look at the sky to gauge the weather, If the probability that it will rain is always 50/50.
Strive to mature..., never grow up (growing up (getting old)..., the only thing remaining is death) ======================== No you can't..., but you can become better than me You're attempting.., incorrectly..., to compare apples and elephants ===================== Many misconceptions Sir In no particular order: Context (aka a component of TA) - does not forecast - never did..., never will..., was never designed/ created/ meant/ intended for forecasting It contextualizes (duh) - which enables us to get..., remain - oriented - and also allows us to gauge / measure ========== You are not grasping the real uncertainty component of trading No one..., not you.., me..., the pope - knows what order flow lays waiting (queued up) to enter the mkt..., after we've entered No one knows what order flow will come into the mkt next..., once the queued up orders clear No one knows what "games" will commence after we've entered =========== Context keeps us on the right side of price - right here..., right now The next tic from now - no one knows =========== At some point price will head in the opposite direction - could be the very next tic..., could be who knows how many tics from now Why it called trading..., and not simply harvesting money Why we are risk managers first..., and foremost And why..., when (not if) a trade breaks down - we exit it - then nonchalantly (casually/ indifferently/ un-excitedly) move on to the next one RN
Totally agree. Markets are kinda chaotic. So we buy or sell according to the context. Aka what has been and what it is. The dynamics. However we can't extrapolate blindly, taking huge risk. Because we effectively never know what's behind the corner. Even if we took action, if we expect something from that chaos. I understand but I am still confused somewhere deep inside me. Anyway. I'll shed light on that. Could even be a breakthrough. Aha. Thanks for having spent some time to explain to me. What's crazy is that we care about context because ... It produce a positive result on the bottom line, But it's true that we're always behind, lost. We can't forecast, predict the future. But we can improve the P&L. By ... Measuring, Gauging. Then the black hole.
It helps to play that game for peanuts. You focus more on your moves, gameplays, On the beauty of that game. Than on the P&L. One do not learn to trade by forcing everything. It's bad to think to do right just because it gains. Someone overleveraged, with no SL and 10 ticks TP, Will feel all right when he wins. Angry when he loses. He will balance between joy and fear, certainly blow up, But he will never take time to learn that game. Detached.
The problem I see repeatedly and why so many remain to be losing traders is unless you can read a chart upside down and all around, TA is worthless. You can't just say 5 period moving average are last five closes divided by five, what else happened in those five bars, what did price have to do for every little change in an indicator? Why does the indicator move as it moves? Most indicators people view them so wrong, indicators are used to indicate, and the rules you have in Trading Plan and well tested will show what patterns to seek to either get onboard existing trend or counter-trend, but to just blindfoldly use an indicator, might as well do to Woddies CCI room. You should be able to know what the indicator will do before price gets there. TA is also use to show when between charting and indicator there is something wrong, divergence. If one understands Price Structure they have read books by John Hill as he is author that most have been plagiarized his works with Linda Raschke close second. More systems than any other author, John Hill, been copied and made into various systems. Problem with many quants, they have not enough knowledge of why something is happening. Chart reading will more times than not say when it is time to get out, whereas indicators generally are not good at both for entering and exiting. Indicators for any one signal have a short life span and "Time" is often not back tested as too many get in tunnel vision as "Trend is your Friend", day trading trends last less. Try this, take one chart and just that one chart as this is going to take years to complete using this one chart. Label every single bar, you make up the names for each bar, and you have to back test each bar to find the right name and what it most likely will do, you will need different names for uptrend/downtrend/sideways. When you can name just 1/3rd of the chart, you are way beyond 99% of the traders. In order to get real good, you have to dissect price, swings and by the hour, how price trades in first hour is not like how it trades mid session. Life is a probability, men love numbers, sports fantasy teams, baseball ave, QB ratings, horse racing speeds. Have you ever thought about this: You have a probability of a Triangle, let's say it profitable 65% of the time, BUT 300 stats you were unaware of when you did back test where all buys only cause trend was up entire time, and cause you rely more on TA than looking at every single trade in back test to form subgroups of stats of how or when that patterns was former, right after short term trend changed back to up, or deeper into trend. So TA is wrong hands, with is many, well, I know where I am getting my profits. Hope you turn it around and trade well !!!
I don't like words like wins, I prefer profitable, maybe I feel like am at a carnival and gunning for the big camel to win it. I do look at the P/L of trade I am in, especially the R:R, so like I am trying to get 10 ticks and price is at 8 ticks, so how much of the 8 ticks willing to risk to make 2 ticks? Yes Sir, better to be detached and not think in terms of happy or upset, that will only mess up the next signal.
Until my lazy ass sat down and used crude methods to actually dissect price structure, my trading performance was mediocre.
It is like which you want working on your brain, the surgeon who takes off part of skull and just sees top/if it on the top he can remove it/even though it is four inches lower and a bit inside or the surgeon who has dissected 500 practice brains and knows every piece and how to get it out without making you act like Pee Wee Herman.