Has anyone else considered that Professional Poker may be the Bubble of the 2000's, much as Online Trading was the Bubble of the late 1990's?? Everybody remembers how many online trading "experts" there were around 1999. Just watch the "ChannelingStocks.com" commercials for a taste of this idiocy. Most blew out quickly in the next 2-3 years. I predict a similar outcome will happen with Poker, although it might take 3-5 years to burn out. Poker is near its height of profitability currently because it is the "in thing" (note increased TV coverage of tournaments, Hollywood actors/actresses playing, etc. ) and many bad players are piling into the game, thinking it is an easy way to make money or get rich. But the reality of poker is that much like trading, there will only be a small percentage ( definitely less than 30%, probably about 10% ) that will be long term winners. Once the newbies get their pocketbooks smacked and the reload bonuses and freebies drop off, a lot will drop out and the games will become a lot harder. Eventually, the fad will fade and it will be onto something else. At that time, you will be in a much better place to have some real trading skills to fall back on than to continue to operate your "poker career". There isn't really much of a barrier to entry currently for learning and playing decent poker. Basically, spend about $300-$500 on good quality poker books ( Sklansky, Malmuth, Ciaffone, Harrington, etc. ), play online for low stakes to practice, learn how to correctly manage your bankroll, move up in stakes as long as you are profitable, and repeat. I have gone from zero poker knowledge as of last December to consistently profitable at Hold'Em in about 9 months now. But I also recognize that there are a whole lot of fools and idiots in the game now. It was probably a lot harder to do that say 10-12 years ago when there weren't as many fish trying to play, and probably the required level of skill will increase markedly over the next few years, or when this fad is over. In summary, I would milk the poker career now because chances are it is a temporary fad and you better develop some real skills (trading or otherwise) now so that you don't have to depend on poker later on when it is less lucrative. One thing is clear - it might be easy to make say $20-$50K a year on poker, but it will be very difficult to make $500K a year on poker unless you are a TV tournament winner.
BINGO !!! Daniel Negreanu is a friend of a close friend of mine and he was telling us that in reality he would net out 20% of all his turney winnings because of various factors. He is smart enough to cash in on the endorsements ! Why do you think all of these players are doing all these videos, books and personal appearences etc...
"I predict a similar outcome will happen with Poker" Sadly, so do I. This is the reason I save/invest as much of my money as I can and why I am here looking to branch out and have something to fall back on when (not if) this ends. It sure is good now though, i can't think of another place where I could make this kind of money...possibly trading.
Hi Allâ¦.be sure to listen to the radio show tomorrowâ¦.. We have a special guest, and new Bright Trader, joining us on the radio show this Saturday (3/4/06 at Noon Pacific). Listen on the Web by clicking through from: www.stocktrading.com/radio.html - listen in and call us at: 888.966.0616, or send questions via Instant Message to either donbright@yahoo or donbright@aol Messengers. See below from Wikipedia. Ron Rose is an American poker player from Las Vegas, Nevada. Prior to getting involved in the poker tournament circuit, Rose was a mathematician and project engineer in the Air Force. Later he became an entrepreneur who started and sold two computer companies and an internet company. He also held a seat on the American Stock Exchange and owned his own commodities firm. Rose (who has been playing poker since the age of 6,) first finished in the money of a World Series of Poker (WSOP) event in 2001 in the $1,500 pot limit omaha event. He went on to win a WSOP bracelet in the 2003 seniors' no limit hold'em event, defeating a field of 377 opponents to take home the $130,060 first prize. In the first season of the World Poker Tour (WPT) Rose finishes 6th at the World Poker Finals, and went on to win the World Poker Challenge event, defeating a final table including Paul "X-22" Magriel and T. J. Cloutier. He would also win the inaugural WPT Battle of Champions event. Rose has also made the final table of the first ever Professional Poker Tour event, finishing in 3rd place. In 2004, Rose's book Poker Aces: The Stars of Tournament Poker (ISBN 0974972401) was released. As of 2005, his total live tournament winnings exceed $900,000. He has never played in a limit poker event. External links Official site Hendon Mob tournament results Poker-Babes Profile Card Player Interview by Mike Sexton
DegenFarang, There are 3 types of trading. Read about them and see what fits your risk tolerance the best. However, I would not advise that you try and scalp the markets...i'm no pro, but when the market got rid of fractions, those spreads got smaller and made it ALOT harder to do. The other two methods: "Momentum trading" and "swing trading" are better suited for todays markets (stocks). Swing trading would be best for a beginner like yourself, It is less stressful and can be more profitable if you find the trend at the right time. The general term "Day trading" I believe, refers to momentum trading (buying and selling many shares a day), is hard because, when you get started in trading, one thing that you will need to learn is S/R (support and resistance)..basically, how high and how low a price falls before repeating itself. I'm new to S/R as well, but I could not imagine trying to tell s/r based on a single day. Prices jump way too much and too fast. in my opinion, you need to wait a few days to a week to really see what the trend is. about the books. ALOT of the books on the shelves were written during the 1990-1999 area, and simply don't apply to the kind of market we are currently experiencing...technology, regulations, and other things have changed. Plus many authors are full of sh*t...they made a few dollars and think they know everything, so they write a book and sell their BS to people like you who don't know any better. These books I HIGHY recommend! The idiots guide to day trading http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/B0...102-8337740-1499303?s=books&v=glance&n=551440 the beginners guide to day trading online http://www.amazon.com/gp/product/15...102-8337740-1499303?s=books&v=glance&n=283155 This last book I must have read 1000 times because the plastic is peeling off the front...it is an older book, but the author is honest and knows what she is talking about. Deciding what broker to go with is also a VERY important decision.. day trading should be done on a DIRECT ACCESS broker, while other types of trading can be done with brokers like scottrade and ameritrade..I use scottrade's basic account and so far i am pleased. Do more research to see what fits. - Nathan
These guys are correct in saying that gambling doesn't scale well. But it depends on how much money you have. You can make 100% a year on bankrolls up to say 200k, then it gets very difficult to get that kind of return on a bankroll above 200k into 7 figures. Maybe in poker, but in casinos games no one wants to take bets that high. I think your skill set is perfect for trading after a career in gambling. The deal with gambling is that anyone with no edge or improper risk controls goes broke before they can ever think about getting into trading. You've just got a year at it. Come to the markets when you've made your nut at gambling and no one wants to bet against you anymore. Regards, Traveler
The skill set required is very similar... But the game is very different. Don't get caught in a blind alley like Techinical Analysis for 10 years like a lot of tragic souls. Go straight to "risk arbitrage" and "market neutral strategies". Here is a good overview/primer on how ** real hedge funds ** work... (Not the 90% frauds that are designed to be no more than "skimming operations"). http://www.vanguard.com.au/library/pdf/RL_Hedge_Fund_Evaluation_P01 05.pdf Go to "Non-Directional Strategy Descriptions" on page 7... But thread very cautiously with the "Opportunistic Strategy Descriptions" on page 8. This information plus Google plus about 5 years experience... And you can say good-bye forever to the variance of poker. And be careful who you listen to... For example... this place is full of deadbeat bozos who paper trade "imaginary accounts"... But feel they are qualified to give you advice on any subject. And the best advice previously... Ignore anybody selling you software or services that will "make you money". It's just life 101 that there is no free lunch or "easy money" in this world. Oh... And TraderNik is my boy. You can PM him anytime... and I'll see to it that he helps you make the transition. rm+
In the long run a Top Poker Player playing with lesser players can not lose (reasonable house fees, honest game. etc.). Also, if you reverse this.. a Poor Player can not win in the long run. However, in the short run Top Players may lose and Poor Players may win. This is similar to the idea that in an honest game, Slot Machines and Dice Tables in Las Vegas are very unlikely to loose at the end of a Calendar. Year. Arguments about luck in gambling often arise because the parties have different definitions of what luck is but do not realize this. Scientific types often think about "variance" when discussing "luck".