traderNIK, Your points are well taken and they are logically undisputable and everything you say is true in theory but in reality (from my experiences) and if you watch a lot pf BIG tourneys from start to finish (actually there) those so called rare hands are not as rare as you thing they are. In gambling "statistical abberations are the NORM not the exception" ... it's what the entire industry is built on... all I'm asking is to just think about that statement because the proof of it's validity is in the 200 Billion Dollars it generates. Thanks for the link btw
You still have it wrong. If all players are VERY VERY GOOD, it does not mean that they are at the SAME LEVEL. No 10 players are at the same level - EVER.
On a side note .... the habits you will pick up playing poker will actually hurt you in trading, this comment is also coming from personal experiences... I will always have a bad trading day Monday if I play poker all weekend.
No argument there - I've felt the love online so many times...AA busted. I guess it's a matter of definition then. I am thinking, as you mentioned, in probabilistic terms only. At any rate, that's probably enough for me on this thread, I guess I stated my position. And I felt the love from IV_Trader Take care Samson.
Nik has it 100% right. I am a part time player and part/full time trader. I have had moderate success at each. The guys who say it's impossible to make money playing cards really sound shockingly like those who say it's impossible to make money in the markets because "there's only professionals in there and they all have the same information, technology blah blah so they're efficient and you can't win". Without getting into the analysis (nik has already done this and done it well) Take a look around major tournaments or cardrooms - the same faces consisitently make the money and make hundreds of thousands of dollars a year. Are they just all real lucky over and over again? For much the same reason, the same traders consistently take money away from the less skilled traders day/week/month in and out. It's not luck. For those academics to say that it's impossible to make money trading or playing cards and maintain that stance while there are numerous people doing just that, in plain view for all to see is just crazy. Look, I know the world record for the mile run is about 3 min, 45 seconds. I may firmly believe that 3:30 represents a real, human barrier and that it truly is impossible for anyone to break that time. But then lets say i attended a meet, and some guy ran it in 3 minutes right in front of my eyes. Well, I would no longer maintain that it was impossible for anyone to run faster than 3:30. But that's precisely what the efficient market people and poker is just gambling crowd does - maintain this contradiction
Interesting.. What types of habits/experiences are you referring to? I am a small time poker player. I basically donate money playing poker online but do quite well when playing with people I can watch - I guess I do not have the ability to remember betting patterns when the players at the online tables change so often. I find it much easier to associate faces and hands with betting styles. Anyway, in terms of trading, I can try to sum up the correlations beyond the obvious ones of risk management and emotional control. I use price only in my decisions (volume as well in certain cases). I believe that price patterns are reflections of people's rationality/irrationality (betting patterns) - the only way to understand these patterns at first is to participate and "feel" the emotions and beliefs you experience when the price moves for/against you. Once you begin to "feel" these emotions you can start taking advantage of them (mastering them) and use them as sources of intuition (this takes years). Somebody mentioned the voice in the back of your head notion. The market will always send that "voice" (the subconscious) very clear signals. Certain days will be "go all in" days and other days you just have to fold - part of listening to that inner voice is doing what it says when the trading day is choppy messy crap. Poker players (like traders/markets) send the same types of signals, people who are a lesser opponent will be an easy read... those who are much better than you will mind -fuck you quickly and then proceed to take your money. There are pros and newb in the market too. Stay away when the pros start to fight each other unless you are really that skilled. A lot of the principles that professional gamblers use can be applied in the markets as well, especially in the short term trading arena. I can on and on about this but I think I am starting to ramble a bit.
IV Trader i don't know why you'd ignore somebody for giving it to you straight how much experience do you have w/ professional poker? how many poker books have you read? you may want to do this before voicing your opinion on the matter i have yet to see one thing TraderNik has said that is not 100% accurate w/ regard to poker