Let me start by saying that it took me about 5 years before I started making money consistently. I've been in the profession for 20+ years and I occasionally have down years. Now I'll hit your points below.... First, I spend ~2 years with stock trading (even intradeys) , more than 150 trades excecuted. Result: -25%. Without commision is: -2%.-------->>> You're actually ahead of the curve here. Most people blow up in their first 2 years. I was in the blow up category. I have read many books, tested many own and others strategy by Amibroker. Papertrade by oanda.com.-------->>> The best book I can recommend is "Trading in the Zone," by Mark Douglas. You need to analyze and train your mind to think like a trader to be successful. Work on your mind and then work on the markets. I cannot win What I can learned: 1. ATR and commision% relation is important when I enter to position.------>>> Agree. Trading less can solve some of this. 2. breakout strategies are loser even with moneymanagment and volume filters.------>>> I couldn't agree more. Trading breakouts is a strategy that is destined to fail. You have to do something different if you want to win. I started winning when I learned to program and developed trading tools based on statistical analysis. I have a few models running during the day with a measure of volatility being the most important variable. My strategies are radically different for a volatile market compared to a non-volatile market. In my opinion, correctly measuring the volatility of the market is the most important key for success. 3. simple gap up/down candle pattern strategies are good performers. With 60-70% winrate and 20-40% return on some (but not all) market. But I cannot follow that, because its need really ful time job.----->>> If you've found something that works keep doing it. If you can't work it because of other obligations look for something you can work. 4. indicators are losers.------->>> For the most part I agree. They are just tools and some of them are useful but you can't put full faith in them. There are times when they are very useful and times when they are not. Knowing the difference can only come with experience. After that, I thought trading is not a craft, but an art. Craft can be learn, but art needs some speciality.--------->>> Trading is indeed an art but I believe it's an art that can be learned to a degree. Some are better than others at visually interpreting data but trading can still be learned. So, I tried zulu trader. Rent 5-6 guys, and i got disappointing result after 1 month:~-10%. Because I never ever talked, see any people living from active trading for years, I getting to though it is impossible! Yes, of cours i know people living from trading result. But, THEY WAS ONE SUCCESFULL YEAR, AND THEY STOP TRADING AND INVEST TO REAL BUSSINES. OR GETTING TO SELL TRADING RELATED SERVICES. HUGE DIFFERENCE!. i JUST THINK THEY WERE LUCKY ONLY, NOT PROFFESSIONALS.-------->>> There may be some truth to this. If you make it big the best thing to do is to quit because you'll give it back if success was based on luck but I know several people who make their living off trading. It can be done but you'd be surprised at how much money you can make with a small hot dog stand or ice cream shop. The markup on those items is huge. So what do you think? ----->>> 2 years is a short period of time. If you truly have a passion for the business give it more time. Otherwise, quit and think about that hot dog stand. There are many, many ways to make money. The older I get the less I want to trade so I'm slowly transitioning into another profession. I won't say what it is but I'll always be trading. I just don't want to make it my primary source of income anymore for the sole reason that it's very, very stressful and I'm getting to old to roll with the stress. It's a young man's sport. Good luck with whatever you decide.
I donât think trading is hard; trading requires some critical thinking and keen observations of market behaviors plus your ability the read the charts properly (PA) which will helps you to be successful at trading. Trading is not an art, nor craft, nor science but some gut reaction of past experiences that enable you to be more proficient at the market IMO.
I agree with most of what you said but I believe trading is a combination of art and science with art taking up the majority. I agree with the "gut reaction" you are talking about. Douglas talks about this in his book and refers to it as, "being in the moment and just knowing." The only way to develop this kind of read or thought process is to log the hours in the chair. To get to the point where you can say, "been there, done that" you gotta pay some tuition. There's no easy path.
You have less than adequate capital. Assume every trade, you pay $5, 150 * 5 *2 / 0.23 = $6521.7 6 Grand is too little.
It is amazing how long it takes newbies to stop focusing on useless things like "winning %" and 1000% annual gains, and start focusing on things like Risk Adjusted Reward, money management, trade management, positive expectancy, drawdowns, sharpe/sortino, or other trading metrics.
Not all systems require intuition. Trading can be art or science. Discretionary vs. mechanical. Different people are comfortable with each. Or it can be a combination.
I get interested to trade again. THE FIRST TIMe EVER I FIND a system and prooved to WORK even with comission accounted too!!! Intraday open range break out for entry, but exit is small secret of mine (not the original EOD close). There are some EQ with good results both in and out samples. There are others with poor (0-10% return with many loosing track) Its crazzy, its means the market has not been so unpredictable, as academic guys says. ~150% avarage annual return (15-300%), no loosing year in the past 6 years. Thats crazyy its is not gambling, not an illness... Just i thinking why academic guys says market are efficient and unpredictable? the efficiency and some degree of predicitivity are not disclose itself. I think the efficient market are liquid and free for everybody. Predicion however is the contrast of chaotic in my interpretation. What would be the WORLD if the value of the goods, the markets, the prices, all economic action are rulled by the random chaos of the market prices???? Stupid academic neoliberals.....
I totally agree. Most go into trading for the money and how much we can make, but the "edge" is not the getting in, but how to manage it once you are in. I now spend most of my bactesting time on how to get losing % extremely low. If you are not losing it, the account has to be going up.
why don't you ask Don Bright? he has many traders that have made millions, during the same time you were winning/losing and overall losing on your trades. so, what is the difference?, in a word, atmosphere. if you're breathing the white collar, movie glitz / galmour of a bunch of guys catching a smoke downstairs, outside the building before going up to the trading desk then you're guaranteed to loose. and you did. if you're breathing the atmosphere of an investor on steroids leveraged to the hilt with what others call an edge, then you're at least making rent money and then making date money, and then making estate money. atmosphere, easier quantified and identified than found.