Principles of Market Timing

Discussion in 'Trading' started by riskfreetrading, Feb 20, 2009.

  1. Would you have wished timing the bottom of the market today with a rally out of "nowhere"?

    You need a set of principles for that task.

    Principle 1: Humans tell the truth except when they buy and sell stocks, and move their lips. In other words, in things that matter to us here, humans, their computers and their tools are liars .

    Provide the other principles. I would follow with other principles.
  2. Principle 2:

    Believe a man only when he puts his money where his mouth/word is. In the case of markets, this means the only market you can really believe is the options market.

    Option pricing is to markets what blood pressure is to human health.

    Learn how to measure it, and deduce information from it.

    Use the information to pick money from the pockets of others.
  3. Principle 3:

    Humans pick their noses at least once a day.

    At the image of its creator, market price also pick its nose at least once a day.

    Each day construct the location of the left side of the price noise and the right side.

    Look at your nose in the mirror. Its shape should look normal, so is the shape of the nose of the price.

    During the day, we know that the price will pick its nose. Price may pick the right side, the left side, or both sides, with a probability of 1 (certainty).

    Now we are getting somewhere towards timing.
  4. Principle 4:

    Use a handkerchief in dealing with the market price nose. The wider the handkerchief the safer are your hands while consulting the sides of the nose.

    But the wider the handkerchief, the more expensive it is, however you would be safer.

    Always keep a handkerchief handy as you never know whether you are on the outside or accidentally in the inside.
  5. Principle 5

    Do you want to deliver a bloody nose ? Of course you would love to particularly in the market--- Who does not.

    We will get to that later. You need first to know more about the geometry and shape of price noses, so that when you hit, you hit at the right place and at the right time, with all your force without worrying about a counter punch.

    To determine how wide the price nose will be, go to the options chain, add the ATM call and ATM put prices.

    Multiple the result by number 3. That is how wide the price nose will be (a little bit more than that, but practically that is all you need).

    Among what is coming in the future:

    1. How to strangle your opponent? No you do not go for the jugulars immediately. First you will strangle the guy from the guts, if he does not move he will be dead. If he moves, you will do this move, and then go for his jugulars---from the back while he is looking the other side

    2. The bloody nose--- I know you love this one, particularly when you get paid to deliver the bloody nose.

    Do not go away, study the material. Veterans may know what I mean, the less veterans, know that you will one day become better than what you are reading

    PS: The word strangling your opponent came as a result of an exchange with an ET member who mentioned that he loves strangling financials.
  6. have you thought about cutting down a bit of the caffeine intake?

  7. Irrelevant comment with an insulting tone/purpose is leading to this response:
    OP has ended his posting on this thread.
  8. Did you see yourself this rally coming?
  9. Oh, come now.....did you really think the thread would last long without any sarcasm? Your arrogance in posts on other people's threads certainly invites it. Besides, the caffeine comment was quite benign.

    Arrogant or not, you've got my respect since you called the bottom on that day last Novemenber (I give credit where credit is due).

    I'm sure you have a thick enough skin (i.e. strong enough ego) to withstand a comment or two.

    So where do we go beyond the picking-the-nose metaphor? :D
  10. I am just wondering where we go from here? Will trading be risk free as last November?
    #10     Feb 20, 2009