Will demographics(baby-boomers), higher debt levels, plus a globally connected financial system cause this time to be different?
I think that the problem with credit card debt is that the companies are afraid to call it uncollectable. Ok, delinquent credit card payments generate excellent CC bills passed on to consumers. But at some point they will have to admit that the loss is not recoverable. What do you guys think? Mind COF that reported not bad results today.
I Deal in DPPs, (private placements with LPs) and some of the offerings are in "RE". Huge deals have been killed recently, (dec 07) Investors walking away from both Residential and Comrc. Don't kid your self, Im in one of the hottest "growth"areas yet, forclosuers are as high as they were in the 80s oil bust. The only thing holding the area up is the fact that homes have not lost value...yet. Inventory is building fast and that will take a toll on NEW HOME and EXISTING HOME PRICES. The S&L crises was much smaller than what we are seeing now. That is from my academic background and from talking to Key IB's at Major Syndicate groups. For christ sake, look at what the fed just did and how much "ARAB/ASIA" money has poured in to shore up banks. NOW THEY ARE TALKING ABOUT BAILING OUT INSURANCE. R you fucking kidding me, your a fool to think this isn't bigger than the "cycles" of bust before (Including 29) I can not say names or identify firms, but panic is only one more "Shoe Drop" away. I hear these idiot RE brokers (i have my lisc as well) talk about how things are going to get better, I see all these RE fools who are agents, driving around with the "sign" on their doors, ablivious. In fact NAR publications have their heads in the sand, fucking idiots. They feel that things will calm down in 08. I remember back at University, (private) when one of my Finance Professors from the "UK" stated...".the biggest problem with America, other than every idiot getting a degree, is that there are millions who call them selves experts, but yet have not a clue". 1998 i see it every day in my industries, so........."stick your head in the sand girls and boys because the storm will be over in a jiffy'...
even the Democrats in Con-gress are spooked.... 2 months ago it was soak the rich....now it's helicopter drop.... say what you want about gold, but it seems to refuse to crater even when it has had a chance to die..... gold.. the true measure for all time...
ok, first, i think RE brokers are scum bags who could not give a shit about their clients.in my case, i do not believe my head is in the sand; i live this everyday. my trading has always been with a bearish bias; never ever been a bull. i just notice that when we are in a crisis, many people think "this one is the mother of all". some are bigger than others, but they all right themselves. ten years ago , the median home in my town was 400k, today it is 900k (per commercial record). incomes did not double. i was also posting in those threads about the coming collapse also; so here it is. i am just saying , when those 900k homes come to 650k, people will buy and stabilize prices. maybe my area is unique (35 miles outside nyc in ct.); but that is my only experience and all i really care about. when you are all around deals breaking down, hearing doom and gloom; a person can get really into it and convince themselves that it will continue down beyond all others. will not happen. i am a buyer (as me and my family has done in previous downturns) when i see the deal. but don't mix me up with a bull...just someone who has bought low!
Are there any house price index websites broken down by state (or even city) for America?The mortgage lenders here provide tables and charts.I might be a purchaser of US property if it falls far enough.
Here's a start: WSJ Its not that bad out there outside the 4 problem states. With mortgage rates close to all time lows, a stimulus package on the way and no recession, odds are a flat to up year in home prices outside the 4 problem states.
I don't think commercial will be as bad since it is more viable than all those millions of mcmansions sitting in suburbia.