For price to head from point A to B, it has to travel at one point or another instead of staying stagnant. So if price can only move during a trading session, the session is segregated to test, and range expansion. With range expansion, limits are broken. If volatility is low, most instances the range expansion is attributed to news events. The test is usually at a outlier. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Outlier "In statistics, an outlier is an observation point that is distant from other observations. " Most temporal fleeting outliers occur at points contrary to predominant trend.
Sic hoc ergo propter hoc?? Just as the definition of "trend" in marketspeak ends up "because I said so" ... the definition of "outlier" is also defined post hoc. Now, the fact that we can define it rigorously, aim numerous statistical measures at it, "correct" for it if need be.... does not address the fact that it's still something upon which we decide . But even worse, in this milieu of grasping-at-straws-to-handle-new-shit in which we find ourselves right now , you have shortened the search/declaration of "outlier" -- to be generous -- on a rather foreshortened data set -- i.e., "December." December is certainly a step-up. But when looked at from a longer lens? The current excursion above a top-side trend line from January 2016, a goodly TWO YEARS ago , it is not-so-much out of character. (IMO, anyway...)
the probability of a parabolic curve implies upside outliers are not the entry points used. Since the nature of the curve implies a higher and higher sloped outliers.
sure, its dependent on the derivative being looked at. A shorter timeframe parabolic curve to the downside, is the best entry point against a longer timeframe parabolic curve to the upside. How do you judge when? a simple trendline break. <correction>.. it should be, How do you judge where?..
"How do you judge {where}? a simple trendline break." Orrrrr-rrrrr, you could telescope out a bit, and "declare" (and excise) the outliers appropriately. {Sorry: out-of-order insertion: Two spots in that yellow trendline [more below] pop above the line, and one spot rides right along it for a period of six weeks: Mid-July'16-Aug'16} (That said , please understand that that heavier yellow line, and the stair-steps drawn in, have done yeoman duty in keeping my arse out of a bunch of top-side flames for the last two years, even as VXST floors {those pukey green skinny lines down below} have descended {again, and again, and again-and-again.... ...}. Do you smell that bacon-ey smell there? Just a hint of maple?? Yeah. That's my ass, in the pan. SO BOTTOM LINE is.... and maybe this works for both of us: If the market is declaring a mighty step-up, without a following period of relief right now?? 1) It's got every right in the world 2) We (*I*) need to remember the good Dr. John Maynard Lord Keynes, and recognize which -- the trader or the market, is the irrational one, and which is iliquid. Ewwwww. ) signed, The Smell Of Bacon....
And lastly -- as a basic trading strategy -- I am now shopping Jan05,12,19, employing the oh-so appropriately named strategy of