But my question has to do with your setup, not with someone's journal. In any case, let it go if you like. LC
You may be addressing this question to me. There are a spectrum of different trading methods that successful traders use. Limiting my response to a comparison in that range of traders, both methods are excellent when used properly. Prof uses them properly and, for him and those who use his methods, they are able to realize the potential of the method. With respect to other trading methods that do not use volume bars, there is a range of results possible when time bars are used. Beginners get one result, intermediates another and so on. If you refer to a chart that shows price and volume and is on a time fractal that is useful, then the trading ratio for a beginner using time bars compared to anyone using volume bars is greater than 1 and probably about 5. Trading ratio is a comparison of the bottom line. For monday (30JAN07) on the ES the beginner (fully operational as a beginner) who traded time 5 minute bars, the result would be 20 plus point. The volume traders would pull about 4 points. When the beginner advances to the use of leading indicators of the volume on ES which leads the price on ES, then the daily yield advances. I have such traders use time bar charts to get leading signals from YM for trading the ES price and volume charts. In this way they have actionable signals that precede the ES by 2 minutes and up to 3 minutes occassionally. Most people never get an opportunity to see the market. If a person makes the decision to learn to trade, there is little or no chance that he will succeed as is demonstrated by the record. Because I have had the experience of the variation and limits of data availability over about 50 years, I am familiar with how to get a trader ramped up to expert trading in the shortest possible time. Long ago, there was not a lot of information available for trading. Now there is and it makes learning to trade a much shorter process especially for those who are following the path to failure. Learning repeated failure is broadly demonstrated here at ET. The alternative to learning repeated failure is a rather narrow path. Along the proper path are many many diversions. Apparently most people are easily diverted. The first and only consideration to be made by a beginner is how price and volume work. There is no debate for getting the job done to do the PROCESS of learning the P, V relationship. A person either does the work or decides not to be a trader. Beginners who know the P, V relationship and trade on ES using 5 minute time bars pull down about 20 points a day on the ES currently in this season. Attached is chart 3 of 22 of the Friday (26JAN07) presentation I did in Tucson for about 22 ET members. It is a money velocity matrix that subtends a market pace/ volatility matrix. I will post that matrix following this post. The point is this: price and volume in their relationship is the beginning of learning to trade. There is no alternative except failure. The fork in the road is a simple one. A person either choses to learn the markets or he choses to gamble. One paradigm deals with extracting available capital from markets the other deals with gaming the markets using Pascal and Fermat strategies. One approach has almost no failure rate and the other has a 90% failure rate. There are no inventions required to learn the markets and trade the markets. What is required to learn the markets is time. It simply takes time to learn using a learning process. About 6 months is required to remotely learn to be an expert and build from 1 contract to 50 contract trading level as set by the profits from starting with one contract. A weekly transfer of excess profits is part of this. You can see that this, up to now, is not communicable to members of ET. That is the way it is at this point. The relationship of price to volume is learned by annotating price and volume. Each has its annotating approach. when done and observed in combination, a synergism occurs. 1 plus 1 is about 5. Here in ET people keep and defend their beliefs. They have a deep and abiding need to do this in their cyber spaces hidden behind their cyber ID's. This is the human potential of the people striving to become middleclass. It is being wasted, often, by this deep and strong handicap of not being able to reason to decide to spend six months to become expert traders using any method among the many available out there. Shunning the work. I just spent over 32 hours over four days with about 20 ET members. They, collectively, were not defending anything. They simple took one incredible step forward to allow themselves to consider becoming traders by looking at the markets from the P, V relationship orientation. We named what happened "swinging the bat". For me, it was so enriching and humbling. It was the best four days of my life. I saw a post yesterday by one of the participates who stepped up to help a person who couldn't make the trip. Bundlemaker answered Steves's questions on page 125 or so of a thread in its first month. That reply to another in three paragraphs, showed me that a person had helped another precisely and correctly and completely within the context of what the market was doing in terms of P and V. Meaning to me and two other sitting in my kitchen, that all our planning and travel and effort was paying off in term of "trensference". I track you and see why you do what you do and do not do. Ordinarily, I refrain from relating to you because I have learned what I have to pay as a consequence. For you it doesn't make any difference whether volume bars are used or time bars are used. To Prof it makes a difference because he helps others to learn to trade successfully. To me it makes a difference because I am able to transfer to people who have the capability to be receptive what it takes to become an expert. What will it take for you to become a person who is capable of beginning to learn? That is the question for people like you to consider.
Great humor... What is the current number for the minimum number of platforms required to "see" the markets?.... The cost is negligible but it is a pain to be coding improvements on so many platforms.
Here is the annualized distribution. Slide 17. Making money is related to a multiple of the daily volatility; use 3 as a normal goal.
Here is the overlap of the annualized distribution. Slide 16. You can use this for determining some aspects of your pre open preflight check and also to determine the strength of interday movement. This is particualarly helpful in a seasonal context that can be noted by making Venn subsets on the matrix of the Slide 17. When a person is making money (high velocity trading), these things enter into the picture as the multiple of the daily range is a normal trading result.
Im flattered that youre keeping track of me. You would probably be suprised to see how much of your stuff I am using. I was just a bit surprised by your approval of profs method but now I see that you feel that it works but is inferior to your own.
Not really interested in your setup per se, but in your question about volume levels and WRBs, etc. But then I don't have the time to pull teeth . . . LC