The views of the people you speak of have fairly specific ranges of ROI over time. They are operating, as you do, in the conventional orthodoxy of the financial industry. Most people aspire to these levels of results through their trading beliefs and corresponding methods. There are alternatives and under those circumstances, what Granville and Dow suggested come into play. It doesn't matter which fork in the road a person chooses but the results are different according to the fork chosen. With the advent of modern times and a lot of data available, often people doing reesaerch go beyond the conventionally used data bases of the past. At some point in the future when more people start using the availabe realtime data from RTH's, it will become apparent that there are other alternatives than those referenced. For example, a person position trading who monitors full time, has about an hour to 1 and 1/2 hours lead time on price movement (is breakout cycles) as compared to volume passing the critical value which signals the impending price BO later. For intraday trading of futures, OT for the references, the 5 minute chart always has volume leading price for the given commodity index. If you move to pairs of commodities the offset of the leading volume of the leading commodity indexes leads even more remarkably the price of the lagger in the pair. This is the world of parasitic trading as a front running strategy. Under these conditions of trading, the profits levels fit into the high velocity trading category which is a daily multiple of the daily trading range. most people can look at their trading displays and see easily none of that which makeshigh elocity trading possible is showing on the screens. This is simply because no platforms offer what is needed to see what is going on P, V wise or leading indicators of V. To see volume leading price it is necessary to have a leading indicator of volume (which is NOT Price). Once that signal is being displayed, then and only then is it possible to see the P, V relationship as it is needed to trade on a high velocity level of trading. So far those using the conventional orthodoxy and the data inputs they examine have not gotten to the point of seeing what is going on during RTH's in a manner to be able to retrieve stsatistical results that provide insights for making high velocity trading levels of profits. It is one thing for an experienced trader to write out specs for examination and quite another thing for a statistician to be able to study the matter cogently. The normal initial response is standard. The intial conclusion is that a mistake in coding has been made since the results are off the chart. Even with subsequent passes it is not easily possible for a person to get any confidence in the coding to be able to proceed further simply because the results do not fit into known other prior work categories. I believe in a matter of years, it will be possible to begin the process of making comparisons with what the market offers and what is being extracted. To determine the baseline of what the market offers hasn't been examined it turns out. It is truly the elephant in the room that is being ignored. The markets have grown huge and any specific extraction technique is not going to affect the pool one iota. Elsewhere there is a discussion of Simon's psychological law called the 10 year rule. This appraently is useful for describing how difficult it is for a trader to become an expert. It takes about 6 months in fact when a person is behaving in a way to make an "effortful study" (thier words). The conventional orthodoxy level of expert is passed in about 5 weeks. The remaining 21 weeks are spent honing the path from beginner to expert. Some the ingredients invloved are surrounding the previously held conventional orthodoxy wisdom with what works to make money on a high velocity level of trading. "Study" is not what is required to traverse the path from A to B. What is required is to follow an agenda specifically designed to get from A to B. In about four days, a person can get to the consideration of building the "barriers" that are needed to surround the conventionalorthodoxy of the financial industry. I'm sure someone will red this and compare it to what is done to recover young people who have been induced to become a part of a cult. In this case it is the young trader being induced into the conventional orthodoxy. No one ever brings him back out of that indoctrination. There is no path back out, ordinarily and the trader resides in this "zone" for the rest of his life. I encounter people of all ages that have made it to the "zone". In a 32 hour training period it usually takes about half or better of the period for the person to say: "I have to drop all of my beliefs and preconceived notions and start over". There is no starting over. What there is is gaining an understanding that all of the beliefs are still gong to be there and that to get past them they have to be surrounded by correct high velocity level trading conclusions that the trader will run inot mentally before he can get to the older conventional orthodoxy and beliefs. Here in the P, V thread the conventional orhodoxy of price an volume will prevail. Books and reading and posting, etc., do not get past the past. The past is a magnet to which people attach bits and pieces. KG affirmations (See the NLP thread) show the attaching of new pieces that he is doing to what he already knows. He triangulates it with the connection he makes to the springs of knowledge that have diverse origins. what has to happen to anyone to begin to dig their way out of their personal circumstance, is to move to a place for a moment and go on "empty". Most people cannot sit and be "empty" for more than a few seconds. I use sweat lodge occassionally to "empty" and my guide has given me tapes of "stories" of the culture. If in a formal process, time is taken to let pople regognize that they must and can build barriers to old knwledge with new knowledge then they see "empty" gives them a break to be able to be open to considerations of a new sort. A new paradigm from the conventional orthodoxy emerges in this way. It is absolutley impossible for most people to come to as a starting point henceforth. This is normal and natural and the die is cast for them. The aspect of markets that makes this even more hazardous is that markets are largely counterintuitive from a conventional overall point of view. This is simply an ashame for most people. 2007 will provide an actual record of the above happening. We are now past the conventional orthodoxy of performance at an expert level this is advanced beginner of high velocity level trading. The intial principles guide how to do the process of effortful learning. By operating from prinicple, tools may be added. The P, V relationship is a tool and it is a basic and powerful one. It says volume leads price.
For those of you who want to see if volume leads price I suggest you find some method of tracking prorata volume. When I am sitting there with nothing going on and suddenly see yellow climbing the wall and turning into orange and red I hit the button.
The path is smooth, why do you throw rocks in front of you? The more traditional Volume Spread Analysis view does state that Volume leads price. In that view Volume refers to the activity of the professional operator. Their buying (demand) and selling (supply) creates the imbalances that move the markets. The opposite view, however, remains correct and connected. Take a breakout (False) as an example. The Professional operators want to ramp PRICE up to a level to create demand. This is price leading demand. Once the breakout occurs , the retail trader rushes in. Hidden in this surge of volume is Professional selling. Professionals trade with large size. In order to not have their selling work against themselves, they need to sell during an UP BAR. Thus Weakness is found in strength and Strength is found in Weakness. What Joel is saying, is that the rush of the uniformed comes after the initial rise of price. That rush then allows the Professional to sell into strength. Price then falls. So they are both true: Price leads volume and volume leads price.
We both want to be operating from the informed point of view. The Herd is sometimes referred to as the people who follow (retail types in many cases). They are often called uninformed as well. The high velocity level of trading that I am referring to (See your characterization) is front running the both the pro operator and the herd. The action is about 1/2 a cycle ahead of the place you mention.
lamont sanford.......helpful on forums is for the dummies....having fun playing with the dummies is helpful...for entertainment...db is okay if you like drawing little lines which can be seen with naked eye.....if u only knew the truth, it would truly shock you....i sought after and found how to id the apex everytime before it appears and nail it at the end within a hair............db said not many can ever do that.....porgie can do that....easy if you study enough........tally ho
You really ought to learn to disguise your style. Peeking around corners wearing bushy eyebrows and a big rubber nose doesn't enhance your credibility. And who the hell is "sanford"? Or can you not read, either? LC
lamont sanford....he was fred sanford's son on sanford and son the black father son junk dealers. obviously you are a foreigner...
Lamont could you please stop quoting and replying to porge. He has been banned many times under different aliases. Thank you.