Since the market broke away from its "nothing can go wrong... no downside volatility because the Fed has the market's back... just BTFD market", appears to have ended (January 29?)... the stock market indices have traded like a teenager's "wet dream come true".... and quite frankly like they always have... it's just been less obvious recently. February has not been, "does TA work at all?"... does "price TA really work?"... it has been RED LIGHT FLASHING, HORN BLARING OBVIOUS! (I'm sure this post will give the "TA doubters" a bout of apoplexy... but the truth is still the truth.) If you didn't see that, suggest hitting the books a little harder.
I've been trading this two way market more successfully than the previous up trend. But, upon closer examination, my problem with the up trend was I was missing/ignoring the positive signals that were there, thinking it had to correct. I was predicting not reacting to what I saw.
Correct/proper trading includes both "some degree of prediction" and "quick reaction".... in reality and their purest forms, they are almost the same thing. Example... you can view the chart and "predict _____ will hold if/when tested", placing an order at that price. You can also watch that same price, and as soon as you see even a 1 or 2 tic bounce at that price, you can play that it "did" hold.
I think of it is totally different way, I have seen this price action several times before and has NOTHING to do with TA or chart reading or reading tea leaves. In either way of chart reading or TA, price shown it was time to come down. What most people never understand about TA, it generally comes off price, it in a way is a delay of what is happening. Can we agree that it takes longer to learn chart reading, took me several years to get decent, whereas new people see indicators and think it be easier to use, but actually they are harder to use correctly cause they don't know how to read charting. I been using TA since the 80s, I use them cause it is easier for me to get overall impression of what is going on. And much easier to program but only if you understand charting. When you have any market that been going up faster than normal then goes up very fast, am looking to short, like all the other times of 40 years. People don't study history is major problem and they always think they are smarter than next guy and something won't happen to them like using VIX, they in same line filing for bankruptcy as others who also had same thoughts, Then forever put down the markets cause they went beyond being greedy, they were pigs to slaughter. Every trade is a prediction as no one every knows what the market will do. We trade based on knowledge and knowledge are rules, sometimes in different ways. I love this game.
I'm surprised in this post. You're a sharp cookie with lots of experience, but you're WAAAAYYYYY wrong on this. It is exactly what you say it isn't. Of course I understand your thing is to "mine the market" for lots of smaller options gains, but that's significantly different from "Price TA to time positions".
Missing out on the uptrend that the US indices were in up to the end of January is hard to understand.
Nothing. Just that you look and sound like him. He's one arrogant son of a bitch if you ever watch Shark Tank. I think he's possibly a little bipolar manic sometimes. I have this theory (nothing concrete or with evidence) that people's look and personality are linked. So in a way, you can actually judge a person by how they look. Which is a reason why I hate online forum. Hard to judge an anonymous name online.