Oh I agree that this weekend is indeed a bit more complex, but I did read that Iran decided to hold off. If there is no attack, the markets can gap up huge just based on that. But of course, none of this is a price action trading strategy and just luck. The trade by itself, because of support levels makes sense, but this geo-political spin turns it into a bit of a gamble where you trade in edge for luck.
I caught the one Thursday. Although I didn't catch that drop Wednesday because my entry was too tight and price never reached it. Now, I wanna see if price will take off from the latest point that I have marked out. On this second chart, I don't see prices bouncing back until around 4800, although I don't really like that setup but it could work. There may be a reaction from the 5120 area (around the current area) but I really don't like that setup either. If that doesn't happen, then 4800 or 4600.
There is another way to look at risk if one manages risk somewhat differently than you probably manage risk (this doesn't mean that your way is wrong, only that there are different processes for managing risk in addition to your way). What if the market gaps up 50 points? If the market gaps up 50 points, then the risk was in not taking the trade before Friday's close. If the market gaps significantly at the open at all, it is a 50/50 at this moment the direction of that gap. If it does gap down, I'd say odds are better than 50% that the gap fills before Monday's settlement. Maybe this little explanation of how I trade size and manage size would be helpful: When I booked my profit on my last swing long the week before last, price was 435 ES points above my first entry. This was a breakout trade to new all time high trade, and as a breakout trade, I entered 100% long immediately, with a stop of 25 points. I added aggressively on each breakout above the previous week's high. By the time I took my profit, I was 200% long. By contrast, I am currently only 20% long. At 20% long, a gap of 125 points down would be an average loss in dollars. I don't know what the odds are that the market gaps down 125 points but I bet they are pretty long odds. This particular entry yesterday is a trading range trade trade: I'm buying low and targeting a sell higher. A gap down could be a gift to me so long as that gap trends reasonably soon upward toward Friday's close. If price gaps down, and starts to turn up, and I add another 20% to my position 25 points or even 50 points down from my current average, that would be a gift. Also, that would not be the same as averaging a loser - not the use of the conditions "if" and "and" and to the conditions they state. I will not add if price gaps down and trends lower from the opening price. I will not add more size repeatedly at lower and lower prices. If there is a gap down, Monday's opening price will be the level of importance for me. Trending up above the open, I'll be adding some. Trending down and below the opening price I'll cut the trade and wait for my next signal. I'm no fool. But I do know exactly what I am doing. I am managing my risk, and I fully accept the risk of every trade I take before I take it or else I just won't take it. PS Bonus real TA alert: If there is more near term down side then I'd be looking for the algos to step in and offer at least a bounce attempt at around ES 5070. That is about half of the range from the last all time high to the most recent all time high.
He behaves like a professional writer (who don't know how to trade successfully) His hindsight analysis is beyond hope. Sad to say, after many years he is still a newbie / noob. He should put effort to learn, and not to teach/preach.